FightChoice Intelligence Report

Francis Marshall
vs
Gaston Bolanos

Francis Marshall vs Gaston Bolanos

https://fightchoice.app/events/francis-marshall-vs-gaston-bolanos-prediction-2026-10-31

Featherweight

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · Oct 31, 2026

In This Report

Prediction IntelClick here to expand

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 10, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Francis Marshall Gaston Bolanos
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 45.5% 54.5%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 51.7% 48.3%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 61.2% 38.8%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 75.7% 24.3%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 69.4% 30.6%
Ensemble 65.8% 34.2%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

The ensemble prediction favors Francis Marshall, driven by a significant age advantage for Francis Marshall over Gaston Bolanos and Francis Marshall's superior win rate. While Gaston Bolanos shows edges in striking metrics like sig strikes landed and KO win rate, the combined model weighting and calibration ultimately lean towards Francis Marshall.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Francis Marshall, citing Francis Marshall's better win rate and age advantage over Gaston Bolanos.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Francis Marshall, highlighting Francis Marshall's clinch strike share and age advantage over Gaston Bolanos.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Francis Marshall
65.8%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

55% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 286 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 286 similar fights By submission *Based on 286 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Francis Marshall 35.7% 17.7% 12.4% 65.8%
Gaston Bolanos 18.5% 9.2% 6.4% 34.2%
286 historical bouts 54.2% 26.9% 18.9% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expand

Tale of the Tape

Stat Francis Marshall Gaston Bolanos
Career Record 10-3 9-5
Height 5' 9" 5' 7"
Weight 145 lbs. 135 lbs.
Reach 72" 69"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 27 34

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expand

How Similar Fights Ended

286 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 286 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

54% Reached the judges
46% Ended early
27% KO/TKO 19% Submission 5:44 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Francis Marshall Gaston Bolanos
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 5, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos
Lightweight
Grant Dawson Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m05s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
67.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
190.3s
Mark Madsen
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 1, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka
Women's Flyweight
Luana Carolina Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
54.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
109.3s
Poliana Botelho
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.3
Strike accuracy
59.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
93s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 9, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates
Bantamweight
Da'Mon Blackshear Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m19s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
45.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
3
Control time (Per Rnd)
79s
Cody Stamann
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
39.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 20, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
Featherweight
Andre Fili
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
35.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Vinicius Oliveira Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m56s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
52.5
Strike accuracy
69.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8.5s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 5, 2019
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
Lightweight
Al Iaquinta
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
31.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.7s
Dan Hooker Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32.7
Strike accuracy
47.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
50s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 30, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
Bantamweight
Marlon Vera Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31.8
Strike accuracy
56.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
25s
Rob Font
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
54.2
Strike accuracy
52.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.6s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 15, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2
Bantamweight
Da'Mon Blackshear Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m09s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.5
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
106s
Cody Gibson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.5
Strike accuracy
63.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
81s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 26, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder
Bantamweight
Da'Mon Blackshear
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
44.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
77.3s
Davey Grant Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
50.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.3s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 15, 2012
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
Heavyweight
Roy Nelson Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m58s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
43.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
48s
Matt Mitrione
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
46.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 30, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns
Welterweight
Gabe Green
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
42.3
Strike accuracy
46.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.7s
Daniel Rodriguez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
58.3
Strike accuracy
50.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 14, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza
Featherweight
TJ Brown
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
30%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
29.7s
Darren Elkins Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m23s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.7
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
62.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
163s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 28, 2011
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
Light Heavyweight
Matt Hamill
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.7
Strike accuracy
37.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
25s
Quinton Jackson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
43%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20.3s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 14, 2012
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva
Middleweight
Brian Stann Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m26s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
77s
Alessio Sakara
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 13, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
Bantamweight
Dominick Cruz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
36.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16.3s
Marlon Vera Winner
Finish 4th Rnd, 2m17s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
39.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.5s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 27, 2008
UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008
Light Heavyweight
Wanderlei Silva
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
26.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Quinton Jackson Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m21s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
55%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expand

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Francis Marshall Gaston Bolanos
Per Round Average
Strikes 10.8 18.2
Strike accuracy 29.3% 47.6%
Takedowns 0.6 0.2
Takedown accuracy 41.7% 75%
Sub attempts 0.2 0
Control time 87.9s 30.1s
Knockdowns 0.13 0
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.08
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 82.4% 66.7%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 2 1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 17 15
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 82.0% 44.1%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 7.0% 28.8%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 11.0% 27.1%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 14.44 16.46
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.06 0.92
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.21 0.53
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.75 0.3
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.75 5.000
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 71.4% 60.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 21.4% 60.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 33.3% 80.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 89.0% 80.9%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 5.2% 4.2%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 5.8% 14.8%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 10:30 12:05
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,515.1 1,512.1
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.117 0.087
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Decline

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