FightChoice Intelligence Report
Abus Magomedov vs Cam Rowston
https://fightchoice.app/events/abus-magomedov-vs-cam-rowston-prediction-2026-10-24
Middleweight
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · Oct 24, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 3, 2026, 18:04 UTC
Model Breakdown
Abus Magomedov
Cam Rowston
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight
40.3%
59.7%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight
54.9%
45.1%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight
28.3%
71.7%
Statistical Model β 20% weight
30.2%
69.8%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight
39.7%
60.3%
Ensemble
33.1%
66.9%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)
The ensemble favors Cam Rowston. Cam Rowston's advantages in being past prime and absorbing strikes are key drivers. Model ζ's strong lean towards Cam Rowston, driven by Abus Magomedov's age and past prime status, significantly influences the final prediction, despite some models favoring Abus Magomedov on specific metrics like total fights and control time.
- Statistical Model β: Model β favors Cam Rowston, citing Cam Rowston's advantages in age, being past prime, sig strikes absorbed, knockdowns absorbed, and Abus Magomedov's age.
- Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Cam Rowston, based on Cam Rowston's ground strike share and Abus Magomedov's distance strike share, despite Abus Magomedov's distance strike share edge.
AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.
Predicted Winner
Cam Rowston
66.9%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
*New fighters, prediction made with limited information
Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 1m15s (6m15s total)
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
72%
52%
45%
Rnd 1
Rnd 2
Rnd 3
45%
Chance of Decision
The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.
Path To Victory
| Fighter | By decision *Based on 286 similar fights | By KO/TKO *Based on 286 similar fights | By submission *Based on 286 similar fights | Win Confidence *Based on our prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abus Magomedov | 15.7% | 11.4% | 5.9% | 33.1% |
| Cam Rowston | 31.8% | 23.2% | 11.9% | 66.9% |
| 286 historical bouts | 47.6% | 34.6% | 17.8% | 100.0% |
Fighter Intel
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Abus Magomedov | Cam Rowston |
|---|---|---|
| Career Record | 29-7-1 | 15-3 |
| Height | 6' 2" | 6' 3" |
| Weight | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach | 78" | 78" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Age | 36 | 31 |
Records are official career records, all promotions included.
Matchup Intel
How Similar Fights Ended
286 historical bouts
Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 286 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.
48%
Reached the judges
52%
Ended early
35%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
4:46
Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came
Rnd 1
78
Rnd 2
50
Rnd 3
20
Rnd 4
2
This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.
Fights with a similar mismatch
Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.
| Fight | Abus Magomedov | Cam Rowston |
|---|---|---|
|
79%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
|
Fight Performance
|
Oban Elliott
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
77%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
|
Fight Performance
|
Miles Johns
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
75%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson
|
Fight Performance
|
Marina Rodriguez
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
74%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad
|
Fight Performance
|
Ryan Spann
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
74%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
|
Jim Miller
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
73%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
|
Fight Performance
|
Tommy McMillen
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
72%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot
|
Fight Performance
|
Marina Rodriguez
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
72%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
|
Fight Performance
|
Song Yadong
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
72%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura
|
Ovince Saint Preux
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
72%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik
|
Fight Performance
|
Derrick Lewis
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
71%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
|
Nathan Fletcher
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
71%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
|
Fight Performance
|
Edmen Shahbazyan
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
71%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev
|
Fight Performance
|
Kyle Daukaus
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
71%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
|
Fight Performance
|
Pannie Kianzad
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
70%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
|
Fight Performance
|
Miles Johns
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Abus Magomedov | Cam Rowston |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 13.3 | 24.7 |
| Strike accuracy | 48.7% | 48.5% |
| Takedowns | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Takedown accuracy | 59.1% | 42.9% |
| Sub attempts | 0.2 | 0 |
| Control time | 67.2s | 128.3s |
| Knockdowns | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0.17 | 0 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 78.8% | 71.4% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 80.0% | 80.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | 1 | 4 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 33 | 7 |
| head strike share | 56.5% | 79.7% |
| body strike share | 31.0% | 9.5% |
| leg strike share | 12.6% | 10.8% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 14.5 | 8.83 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0 | 0 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.46 | 0.39 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.63 | 0.06 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.67 | 1 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | Yes |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 76.9% | 60.0% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 50.0% | 60.0% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 26.9% | 0.0% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 71.4% | 50.0% |
| distance strike share | 86.6% | 48.6% |
| clinch strike share | 3.3% | 5.4% |
| ground strike share | 10.0% | 45.9% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 9:46 | 8:56 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,544.5 | 1,548.0 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.232 | 0.068 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Peak | Peak |
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