FightChoice Intelligence Report

Bolaji Oki
vs
Daniel Santos

Bolaji Oki vs Daniel Santos

https://fightchoice.app/events/bolaji-oki-vs-daniel-santos-prediction-2026-10-24

Featherweight

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · Oct 24, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

As Bolaji Oki steps into the cage against Daniel Santos at UFC 333, fans can expect a dynamic clash of styles in the featherweight division. Oki, with a career record of 10-4, stands tall at 5'10" with a reach of 73 inches, giving him a physical advantage over Santos, who comes in at 5'7" and has a reach of 67 inches. But while Oki may have the height and reach, Santos boasts a stronger overall record at 13-3, and he’s been on a recent win streak, showcasing an 80% win rate compared to Oki's 40%. This matchup has shades of when Thiago Moises outclassed Christos Giagos at UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot, demonstrating how a fighter in their prime can exploit their opponent's weaknesses.

Statistically, Oki has a slight edge in striking output, averaging 28.8 significant strikes per round with a 44.7% accuracy, whereas Santos lands 23.8 strikes at a 40.5% accuracy. However, Santos excels in grappling, averaging 83.2 seconds of control time per round compared to Oki’s 33.7 seconds. With both fighters possessing a notable finish rate—Oki at 54.5% and Santos at 61.5%—the fans can expect an explosive encounter that might not go the distance, especially given the base rates indicate a 29.4% chance of a knockout in the UFC. As the match unfolds, it will be fascinating to see if Oki can leverage his reach or if Santos will capitalize on his grappling skills to dominate the fight.

#BolajiOki #DanielSantos #UFC333 #Featherweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 20, 2026, 00:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Bolaji Oki Daniel Santos
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 42.7% 57.3%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 55.9% 44.1%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 41.7% 58.3%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 55.3% 44.7%
Ensemble 48.5% 51.5%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Daniel Santos is favored by the ensemble prediction. Key factors driving the models include B.O.'s higher knockdowns absorbed and recent win rate advantage, alongside D.S.'s better Elo rating and takedown numbers. Despite a split among individual models, the ensemble's calibration and weighting ultimately favor Daniel Santos.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Daniel Santos, citing his higher win rate against B.O., a better Elo rating, and more takedowns landed.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Bolaji Oki, highlighting his reach advantage and greater distance strike share against D.S.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Daniel Santos
51.5%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

55% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 286 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 286 similar fights By submission *Based on 286 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Bolaji Oki 26.1% 14.3% 8.1% 48.5%
Daniel Santos 27.7% 15.1% 8.6% 51.5%
286 historical bouts 53.8% 29.4% 16.8% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Bolaji Oki Daniel Santos
Career Record 10-4 13-3
Height 5' 10" 5' 7"
Weight 155 lbs. 145 lbs.
Reach 73" 67"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 30 31

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

286 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 286 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

54% Reached the judges
46% Ended early
29% KO/TKO 17% Submission 6:05 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Bolaji Oki Daniel Santos
85% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 25, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot
Lightweight
Thiago Moises Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m05s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
75%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
154s
Christos Giagos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
83% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 4, 2024
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Featherweight
Jack Shore
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
24s
Joanderson Brito Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m35s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
53.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
154.5s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 17, 2024
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
Light Heavyweight
Brendson Ribeiro
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
45.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Zhang Mingyang Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m41s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
60.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 11, 2021
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Featherweight
Josh Emmett Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
36.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15.7s
Dan Ige
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
41.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 19, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba
Bantamweight
Vince Morales
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
29.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.7s
Miles Johns Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
36.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
8.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42.7s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 27, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez
Lightweight
Austin Hubbard Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.3
Strike accuracy
42.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16s
Michal Figlak
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30.7
Strike accuracy
43.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
32.3s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 19, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2
Welterweight
Alexander Yakovlev
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
43.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Zak Cummings Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m02s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
30%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
35s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 30, 2016
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
Welterweight
Ross Pearson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.3
Strike accuracy
37.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9.7s
Jorge Masvidal Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
37.7
Strike accuracy
44.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 12, 2026
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado
Women's Flyweight
Manon Fiorot
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
31.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
Alexa Grasso Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.7
Strike accuracy
40.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
19s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 15, 2021
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
Women's Flyweight
Katlyn Cerminara Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
42.3
Strike accuracy
43.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
Viviane Araujo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.7
Strike accuracy
45.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
61.3s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 22, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker
Light Heavyweight
Volkan Oezdemir Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m27s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
37.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Alonzo Menifield
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
28.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 27, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson
Lightweight
Thomas Gifford
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
33.7s
Roosevelt Roberts Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.7
Strike accuracy
62.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
183.7s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 23, 2010
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
Lightweight
Sam Stout Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
35.7
Strike accuracy
36.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
Paul Taylor
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
46.7
Strike accuracy
47.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 19, 2011
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
Lightweight
Rafael Dos Anjos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
26%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
40.3s
Gleison Tibau Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
43.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
34.7s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 16, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal
Women's Flyweight
Priscila Cachoeira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
32.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
22.3s
Molly McCann Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
35.7
Strike accuracy
54.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
18.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
24.7s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Bolaji Oki Daniel Santos UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 28.8 23.8 13.2
Strike accuracy 44.7% 40.5% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.3 0.8 0.4
Takedown accuracy 57.1% 33.3% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0 0 0.2
Control time 33.7s 83.2s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0.08 0.13 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0.25 0.13 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 73.3% 81.3% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 80.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -2 -1 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 15 16 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 68.2% 66.7% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 23.1% 22.1% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 8.7% 11.2% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 24.08 24.87 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.25 0.27 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.7 0.33 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.55 0.36 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0 2.5 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 54.5% 61.5% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 45.5% 46.2% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 9.1% 15.4% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 75.0% 33.3% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 89.6% 76.5% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 7.2% 9.0% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 3.2% 14.6% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 11:13 11:33 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,483.3 1,532.4 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.084 0.184 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak —
Market IntelClick here to expandHow the betting market prices this fight compared to our model's number.

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Bolaji Oki 48.5% 1.98 50.5% -3.9%
Daniel Santos 51.5% 1.85 54.1% -4.8%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake No bet recommended at the price we recorded.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Bolaji Oki Daniel Santos
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -115 1.87 -135 1.74
DraftKings -102 1.98 -118 1.85
FanDuel +106 2.06 -135 1.74
BetMGM +110 2.10 -135 1.74
Bovada +102 2.02 -122 1.82
BetOnline -101 1.99 -115 1.87

Odds captured Oct 21, 2026, 6:02 AM

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