FightChoice Intelligence Report
Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev
https://fightchoice.app/events/grant-dawson-vs-nurullo-aliev-prediction-2026-10-24
Lightweight
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · Oct 24, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 3, 2026, 18:04 UTC
Model Breakdown
Grant Dawson
Nurullo Aliev
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight
52.1%
47.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight
37.8%
62.2%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight
60.5%
39.5%
Statistical Model β 20% weight
42.2%
57.8%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight
46.7%
53.3%
Ensemble
46.6%
53.4%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)
Nurullo Aliev is favored by the ensemble prediction. Key factors driving the models include Grant Dawson's higher win rate and Elo rating, contrasted with Nurullo Aliev's advantages in age and fewer significant strikes absorbed. Despite a split among individual models, the ensemble's calibration and weighting ultimately favor Aliev.
- Statistical Model β: Model β favors Nurullo Aliev, citing his lower age and fewer significant strikes absorbed compared to Grant Dawson.
- Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Nurullo Aliev, noting his higher ground strike share and Grant Dawson's orthodox stance.
AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.
Predicted Winner
Nurullo Aliev
53.4%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
82%
69%
63%
Rnd 1
Rnd 2
Rnd 3
63%
Chance of Decision
The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.
Path To Victory
| Fighter | By decision *Based on 146 similar fights | By KO/TKO *Based on 146 similar fights | By submission *Based on 146 similar fights | Win Confidence *Based on our prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson | 20.4% | 16.9% | 9.3% | 46.6% |
| Nurullo Aliev | 23.4% | 19.4% | 10.6% | 53.4% |
| 146 historical bouts | 43.8% | 36.3% | 19.9% | 100.0% |
Fighter Intel
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Grant Dawson | Nurullo Aliev |
|---|---|---|
| UFC Record | 12-2-1 | 4-0 |
| Height | 5' 10" | 5' 10" |
| Weight | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach | 72" | 72" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Age | 32 | 25 |
Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.
Matchup Intel
How Similar Fights Ended
146 historical bouts
Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 146 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.
44%
Reached the judges
56%
Ended early
36%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
6:01
Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came
Rnd 1
37
Rnd 2
27
Rnd 3
15
Rnd 4
2
Rnd 5
1
This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.
Fights with a similar mismatch
Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.
| Fight | Grant Dawson | Nurullo Aliev |
|---|---|---|
|
76%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez
|
Fight Performance
|
Esteban Ribovics
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
73%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
|
Fight Performance
|
Cody Garbrandt
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
71%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw
|
Fight Performance
|
Adrian Yanez
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
70%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger
|
Fight Performance
|
Ronny Markes
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
68%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
|
Kamaru Usman
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
68%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa
|
Fight Performance
|
Ciryl Gane
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
67%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder
|
Petr Yan
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
67%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith
|
Fight Performance
|
Nasrat Haqparast
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
66%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus
|
Charles Jourdain
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
66%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch
|
Uriah Hall
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
64%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
|
Fight Performance
|
Bassil Hafez
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
64%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
|
Daron Cruickshank
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
64%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues
|
Andre Petroski
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
64%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
|
Charles Rosa
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
63%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
|
Tai Tuivasa
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Grant Dawson | Nurullo Aliev |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 13.9 | 9.8 |
| Strike accuracy | 51.2% | 41.5% |
| Takedowns | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Takedown accuracy | 39% | 58.3% |
| Sub attempts | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Control time | 174.4s | 176.1s |
| Knockdowns | 0.03 | 0 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0.08 | 0 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 85.7% | 100.0% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 80.0% | 100.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | 1 | 5 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 14 | 5 |
| head strike share | 69.4% | 82.2% |
| body strike share | 17.7% | 13.6% |
| leg strike share | 12.9% | 4.2% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 9.89 | 8.33 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.92 | 1.47 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.95 | 1.83 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.62 | 0.5 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | No | Yes |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | Yes | No |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 58.3% | 20.0% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 16.7% | 20.0% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 41.7% | 0.0% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| distance strike share | 52.0% | 62.7% |
| clinch strike share | 9.9% | 7.6% |
| ground strike share | 38.1% | 29.7% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 11:03 | 15:00 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,632.5 | 1,562.8 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.372 | 0.108 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Peak | Peak |
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