FightChoice Intelligence Report
Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili
https://fightchoice.app/events/petr-yan-vs-merab-dvalishvili-prediction-2026-10-24
Bantamweight
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · Oct 24, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 3, 2026, 18:05 UTC
Model Breakdown
Petr Yan
Merab Dvalishvili
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight
49.0%
51.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight
53.7%
46.3%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight
52.5%
47.5%
Statistical Model β 20% weight
57.8%
42.2%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight
37.4%
62.6%
Ensemble
51.0%
49.0%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)
The ensemble prediction favors Petr Yan, despite a split among individual models. Key factors driving the prediction include Petr Yan's win rate and Merab Dvalishvili's age and past prime status, which outweigh Merab Dvalishvili's advantages in takedowns landed and Elo rating.
- Statistical Model β: Model β favors Petr Yan, citing Merab Dvalishvili's age and past prime status, and Petr Yan's win rate.
- Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Merab Dvalishvili, based on his higher Elo rating and Petr Yan's switch stance.
AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.
Predicted Winner
Petr Yan
51.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (25m00s total)
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
89%
79%
72%
68%
65%
Rnd 1
Rnd 2
Rnd 3
Rnd 4
Rnd 5
65%
Chance of Decision
The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.
Path To Victory
| Fighter | By decision *Based on 94 similar fights | By KO/TKO *Based on 94 similar fights | By submission *Based on 94 similar fights | Win Confidence *Based on our prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Yan | 24.8% | 18.3% | 7.5% | 50.7% |
| Merab Dvalishvili | 24.1% | 17.8% | 7.3% | 49.3% |
| 94 historical bouts | 48.9% | 36.2% | 14.9% | 100.0% |
Fighter Intel
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Petr Yan | Merab Dvalishvili |
|---|---|---|
| UFC Record | 12-4 | 14-3 |
| Height | 5' 7" | 5' 6" |
| Weight | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach | 67" | 68" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Age | 33 | 35 |
Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.
Matchup Intel
How Similar Fights Ended
94 historical bouts
Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 94 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.
49%
Reached the judges
51%
Ended early
36%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
4:29
Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came
Rnd 1
25
Rnd 2
13
Rnd 3
10
This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.
Fights with a similar mismatch
Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.
| Fight | Petr Yan | Merab Dvalishvili |
|---|---|---|
|
66%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot
|
Charles Jourdain
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
65%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
|
Matt Mitrione
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
65%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2
|
Fight Performance
|
Alistair Overeem
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
65%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
|
Fight Performance
|
Rose Namajunas
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
65%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Henderson 2
|
Fight Performance
|
CB Dollaway
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
65%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
|
Fight Performance
|
Jan Blachowicz
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
65%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev
|
Kennedy Nzechukwu
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
65%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
|
Vinicius Oliveira
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
64%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber
|
Fight Performance
|
Ramiz Brahimaj
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
64%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch
|
Chas Skelly
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
64%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2
|
Daniel Zellhuber
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
64%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
|
Dan Hooker
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
64%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes
|
David Teymur
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
64%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho
|
Fight Performance
|
Francis Marshall
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
63%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura
|
Fight Performance
|
Chelsea Chandler
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Petr Yan | Merab Dvalishvili |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 25.1 | 22.0 |
| Strike accuracy | 54.9% | 41.6% |
| Takedowns | 0.6 | 2.0 |
| Takedown accuracy | 49.2% | 35.2% |
| Sub attempts | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Control time | 43.8s | 107.4s |
| Knockdowns | 0.17 | 0.02 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 75.0% | 82.4% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 80.0% | 80.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | 4 | -1 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 16 | 17 |
| head strike share | 69.2% | 66.6% |
| body strike share | 19.0% | 17.3% |
| leg strike share | 11.8% | 16.1% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 20.64 | 13.97 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.84 | 0.72 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.58 | 0.56 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 1 | 0.83 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | No | Yes |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | Yes | No |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 33.3% | 14.3% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 33.3% | 7.1% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 0.0% | 7.1% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| distance strike share | 74.6% | 63.6% |
| clinch strike share | 12.1% | 14.9% |
| ground strike share | 13.3% | 21.5% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 17:38 | 17:36 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,635.3 | 1,669.7 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.737 | 1.000 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Peak | Peak |
Market Intel
Betting Edge
| Fighter | Win confidence | DraftKings odds | Break-even | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Yan | 51.0% | 1.57 | 63.7% | -20.5% |
| Merab Dvalishvili | 49.0% | 2.45 | 40.8% | +20.9% |
Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.
Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.
Recommended stake
No bet recommended at the price we recorded.
Market Odds
| Sportsbook | Petr Yan | Merab Dvalishvili | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Decimal | US | Decimal | |
| Proline | -204 | 1.49 | +125 | 2.25 |
| DraftKings | -175 | 1.57 | +145 | 2.45 |
| FanDuel | -172 | 1.58 | +140 | 2.40 |
| BetOnline | -179 | 1.56 | +153 | 2.53 |
Odds captured Oct 4, 2026, 12:03 AM
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Petr Yan
Merab Dvalishvili
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