FightChoice Intelligence Report

Alexander Volkanovski
vs
Movsar Evloev

Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev

https://fightchoice.app/events/alexander-volkanovski-vs-movsar-evloev-prediction-2026-10-24

Featherweight

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · Oct 24, 2026

In This Report

Prediction IntelClick here to expand

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 3, 2026, 18:05 UTC

Model Breakdown
Alexander Volkanovski Movsar Evloev
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 48.4% 51.6%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight 57.2% 42.8%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight 21.6% 78.4%
Statistical Model β 20% weight 24.3% 75.7%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight 41.4% 58.6%
Ensemble 32.9% 67.1%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Movsar Evloev is favored by the ensemble prediction, driven by strong indicators of him being in his prime and Alexander Volkanovski potentially being past his. Key factors include Movsar Evloev's superior takedowns landed and age advantage, with several models also noting Alexander Volkanovski's past prime status. Despite a split among individual models regarding specific metrics like Elo rating and significant strikes, the calibrated ensemble prediction leans towards Movsar Evloev.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Movsar Evloev, citing his advantages in age, past prime status, win rate, and takedowns landed over Alexander Volkanovski.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Movsar Evloev, highlighting his higher Elo rating, younger age, and superior takedowns landed compared to Alexander Volkanovski.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Movsar Evloev
67.1%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (25m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

58% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 286 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 286 similar fights By submission *Based on 286 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Alexander Volkanovski 17.7% 9.1% 6.1% 32.9%
Movsar Evloev 36.1% 18.5% 12.4% 67.1%
286 historical bouts 53.8% 27.6% 18.5% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expand

Tale of the Tape

Stat Alexander Volkanovski Movsar Evloev
UFC Record 15-3 10-0
Height 5' 6" 5' 7"
Weight 145 lbs. 145 lbs.
Reach 71" 72"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 38 32

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expand

How Similar Fights Ended

286 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 286 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

54% Reached the judges
46% Ended early
28% KO/TKO 19% Submission 4:59 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Alexander Volkanovski Movsar Evloev
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 14, 2009
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera
Lightweight
Dennis Siver Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m53s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
23%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.5s
Paul Kelly
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
14.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 12, 2009
UFC 107: Penn vs Sanchez
Welterweight
Kevin Burns
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
37.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
39s
TJ Grant Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m57s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28
Strike accuracy
70%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
148s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 6, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2
Featherweight
Morgan Charriere
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
47.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
74s
Chepe Mariscal Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.7
Strike accuracy
51.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
12.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
72.7s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 5, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai
Bantamweight
Hunter Azure Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
75%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
62.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
160.7s
Cole Smith
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.3
Strike accuracy
38.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
64.3s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 17, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie
Featherweight
Thomas Almeida
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.3
Strike accuracy
37.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
Jonathan Martinez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.3
Strike accuracy
35.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 16, 2016
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
Welterweight
Santiago Ponzinibbio Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m15s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
38
Strike accuracy
52.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
Court McGee
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
35
Strike accuracy
36.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 10, 2010
UFC 112: Invincible
Lightweight
BJ Penn
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.2
Strike accuracy
27.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Frankie Edgar Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.2
Strike accuracy
26.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
7.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 10, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Dos Santos
Featherweight
Lucas Martins Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
34.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Robert Whiteford
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
45.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
31.7s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 15, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
Women's Flyweight
Gabriella Fernandes Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
39.7
Strike accuracy
50.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
53.3s
Carli Judice
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
56.3
Strike accuracy
52.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
21.3s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 20, 2024
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis
Women's Bantamweight
Priscila Cachoeira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
48%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.7s
Jasmine Jasudavicius Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m21s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31
Strike accuracy
77.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
228.3s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 22, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson
Featherweight
Cub Swanson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.2
Strike accuracy
36%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Frankie Edgar Winner
Finish 5th Rnd, 4m56s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.6
Strike accuracy
46%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.4
Takedown accuracy
53.8%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.4
Control time (Per Rnd)
194s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 8, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux
Flyweight
Willie Gates
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.3
Strike accuracy
40.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Dustin Ortiz Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m58s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30.7
Strike accuracy
71.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
30.8%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
215s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 3, 2017
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
Welterweight
Jim Wallhead
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
20%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.5s
Luan Chagas Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m48s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
47.5
Strike accuracy
60.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 12, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira
Heavyweight
Austen Lane
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
75%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Vitor Petrino Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m16s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
183s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 2, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve
Heavyweight
Alexander Volkov Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m30s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
45
Strike accuracy
53.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
19.7s
Stefan Struve
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
25.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expand

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Alexander Volkanovski Movsar Evloev
Per Round Average
Strikes 28.8 19.5
Strike accuracy 57.1% 47.6%
Takedowns 0.5 1.6
Takedown accuracy 34% 52.6%
Sub attempts 0.1 0.1
Control time 57s 107.1s
Knockdowns 0.10 0
Knockdowns absorbed 0.06 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 83.3% 100.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 100.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 2 10
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 18 10
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 65.0% 76.6%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 10.4% 15.0%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 24.6% 8.3%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 15.92 14
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.22 0.44
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.57 1.44
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.43 1.23
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.41 1.06
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 33.3% 0.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 33.3% 0.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 66.7% 0.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 76.4% 75.2%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 8.5% 8.0%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 15.1% 16.8%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 16:50 16:00
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,677.6 1,658.4
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.356 0.542
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak
Market IntelClick here to expand

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Alexander Volkanovski 32.9% 1.95 51.3% -35.9%
Movsar Evloev 67.1% 1.87 53.5% +25.5%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake 22% of bankroll on Movsar Evloev at 1.87 (DraftKings) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Alexander Volkanovski Movsar Evloev
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -125 1.80 -125 1.80
DraftKings -105 1.95 -115 1.87
FanDuel -114 1.88 -114 1.88
BetOnline +103 2.03 -120 1.83

Odds captured Oct 4, 2026, 12:03 AM

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