FightChoice Intelligence Report
Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita
https://fightchoice.app/events/aaron-pico-vs-losene-keita-prediction-2026-10-24
Featherweight
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · Oct 24, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 10, 2026, 12:03 UTC
Model Breakdown
Aaron Pico
Losene Keita
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight
52.6%
47.4%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight
53.7%
46.3%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight
53.0%
47.0%
Statistical Model β 20% weight
57.8%
42.2%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight
58.9%
41.1%
Ensemble
57.9%
42.1%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)
Aaron Pico's superior takedown game, evidenced by higher takedowns landed and a better takedowns landed differential, is the primary driver for the ensemble's prediction. His higher win rate also contributes significantly. The ensemble favors Aaron Pico, with most individual models agreeing, though Model ζ noted L.K.'s advantage in knockdowns.
- Statistical Model β: Model β favors Aaron Pico, citing his higher takedowns landed and win rate, despite his age.
- Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Aaron Pico, pointing to his higher takedowns landed and clinch strike share.
AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.
Predicted Winner
Aaron Pico
57.9%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
*New fighters, prediction made with limited information
Predicted Duration
1st Round at 3m45s (3m45s total)
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
71%
56%
50%
Rnd 1
Rnd 2
Rnd 3
50%
Chance of Decision
The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.
Path To Victory
| Fighter | By decision *Based on 200 similar fights | By KO/TKO *Based on 200 similar fights | By submission *Based on 200 similar fights | Win Confidence *Based on our prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Pico | 28.1% | 18.2% | 11.6% | 57.9% |
| Losene Keita | 20.4% | 13.3% | 8.4% | 42.1% |
| 200 historical bouts | 48.5% | 31.5% | 20.0% | 100.0% |
Fighter Intel
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Aaron Pico | Losene Keita |
|---|---|---|
| Career Record | 14-5 | 17-2 |
| Height | 5' 8" | 5' 8" |
| Weight | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach | 70" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Age | 30 | 28 |
Records are official career records, all promotions included.
Matchup Intel
How Similar Fights Ended
200 historical bouts
Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 200 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.
49%
Reached the judges
52%
Ended early
32%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
4:21
Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came
Rnd 1
58
Rnd 2
34
Rnd 3
10
Rnd 4
1
This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.
Fights with a similar mismatch
Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.
| Fight | Aaron Pico | Losene Keita |
|---|---|---|
|
70%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
|
Fight Performance
|
Rani Yahya
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
69%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos
|
Fight Performance
|
Francis Ngannou
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
69%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum
|
Parker Porter
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
67%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
|
Fight Performance
|
Viscardi Andrade
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
67%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3
|
Fight Performance
|
Rashid Magomedov
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
67%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos
|
Junior Dos Santos
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
67%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
|
Fight Performance
|
Thiago Alves
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
66%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
|
Johny Hendricks
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
66%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
|
Ricardo Ramos
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
66%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
|
Corey Anderson
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
66%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt
|
Sara McMann
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
65%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros
|
Fight Performance
|
Lucie Pudilova
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
65%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori
|
Fight Performance
|
Gregory Rodrigues
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
65%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
|
Fight Performance
|
James Krause
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
65%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
|
Fight Performance
|
Josh Neer
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Aaron Pico | Losene Keita |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 28.3 | 17.5 |
| Strike accuracy | 53.8% | 47% |
| Takedowns | 2 | 0 |
| Takedown accuracy | 50% | 0% |
| Sub attempts | 0 | 0 |
| Control time | 81.5s | 5s |
| Knockdowns | 0 | 0.50 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0.25 | 0 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 76.9% | 83.3% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 60.0% | 80.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | 1 | 1 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 13 | 6 |
| head strike share | 76.1% | 74.3% |
| body strike share | 14.2% | 21.4% |
| leg strike share | 9.7% | 4.3% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 14.25 | 17.75 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0 | 0 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | Yes |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 70.0% | 80.0% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 50.0% | 80.0% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| distance strike share | 85.8% | 88.6% |
| clinch strike share | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| ground strike share | 6.2% | 11.4% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 9:11 | 8:57 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,506.0 | 1,506.8 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.185 | 0.054 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Peak | Peak |
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