FightChoice Intelligence Report

Umar Nurmagomedov
vs
Song Yadong

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong

https://fightchoice.app/events/umar-nurmagomedov-vs-song-yadong-prediction-2026-08-29

Bantamweight

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · Aug 29, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 8, 2026, 00:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Umar Nurmagomedov Song Yadong
Statistical Model δ 62% weight 70.2% 29.8%
Statistical Model β 36% weight 70.9% 29.1%
Statistical Model ε 2% weight 64.7% 35.3%
Ensemble 80.0% 20.0%
Predicted Winner
Umar Nurmagomedov
80.0%
Confidence
Predicted Duration
Decision (25m00s total)
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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to their career statistics as they stood going into the fight — 37 of them, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units, and far more than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Umar Nurmagomedov Song Yadong
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 2, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park
Women's Strawweight
Piera Rodriguez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.3
Strike accuracy
42.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
70%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
92s
Ketlen Souza
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
54.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
33.7s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 5, 2022
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
Welterweight
Colby Covington Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.8
Strike accuracy
46.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.2
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.2
Control time (Per Rnd)
194.8s
Jorge Masvidal
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.4
Strike accuracy
47.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.2s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 2, 2017
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
Welterweight
Alex Oliveira
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31
Strike accuracy
57.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
61.7s
Yancy Medeiros Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m02s
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
49.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
22.3s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 10, 2016
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
Lightweight
Olivier Aubin-Mercier Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m57s
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.5
Strike accuracy
50.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
46.5s
Drew Dober
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
33.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
36.5s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 28, 2013
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
Lightweight
Gleison Tibau
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
19%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
29.5s
Michael Johnson Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m32s
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
25.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s

Tale of the Tape

Stat Umar Nurmagomedov Song Yadong
UFC Record 8-1 12-4-1
Height 5' 8" 5' 8"
Weight 135 lbs. 135 lbs.
Reach 69" 67"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 30 28

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Umar Nurmagomedov Song Yadong
Per Round Average
Strikes 18.8 20.4
Strike accuracy 56.5% 43.7%
Takedowns 1.3 0.3
Takedown accuracy 46.6% 41.4%
Sub attempts 0.1 0.1
Control time 113.3s 37.6s
Knockdowns 0.04 0.15
Knockdowns absorbed 0.08 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 95.2% 75.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 2 1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 21 16
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 68.3% 61.0%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 20.2% 19.4%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 11.5% 19.6%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 9.08 18.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.27 0.27
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.58 0.63
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.34 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1 0.4
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 45.0% 58.3%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 10.0% 41.7%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 35.0% 16.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 25.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 67.3% 85.9%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 5.9% 6.0%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 26.8% 8.1%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 14:04 12:52
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,618.4 1,616.0
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.476 0.328
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Decline

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Umar Nurmagomedov 80.0% 1.22 82.0% -2.4%
Song Yadong 20.0% 4.50 22.2% -10.0%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake 2% of bankroll on Umar Nurmagomedov at 1.22 (DraftKings) Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Umar Nurmagomedov Song Yadong
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -625 1.16 +310 4.10
DraftKings -455 1.22 +350 4.50
FanDuel -526 1.19 +350 4.50
BetOnline -455 1.22 +350 4.50

Odds captured Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM

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