FightChoice Intelligence Report

Liu Ce
vs
Levi Rodrigues Jr.

Liu Ce vs Levi Rodrigues Jr.

https://fightchoice.app/events/liu-ce-vs-levi-rodrigues-jr-prediction-2026-08-29

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · Aug 29, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 25, 2026, 06:02 UTC

Model Breakdown
Liu Ce Levi Rodrigues Jr.
Deep Learning Model α 25% weight 48.7% 51.3%
Deep Learning Model ξ 27% weight 58.5% 41.5%
Statistical Model β 25% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 23% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Ensemble 52.9% 47.1%
Predicted Winner
Liu Ce
52.9%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

65% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 117 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 117 similar fights By submission *Based on 117 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Liu Ce 24.0% 13.6% 15.4% 52.9%
Levi Rodrigues Jr. 21.3% 12.1% 13.7% 47.1%
117 historical bouts 45.3% 25.6% 29.1% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

117 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 117 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

45% Reached the judges
55% Ended early
26% KO/TKO 29% Submission 5:35 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Liu Ce Levi Rodrigues Jr.
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 12, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira
Flyweight
Brandon Royval Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.8
Strike accuracy
53.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.6
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.6
Control time (Per Rnd)
28.6s
Tatsuro Taira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.4
Strike accuracy
42.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.2
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.2
Control time (Per Rnd)
146.6s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 15, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
Flyweight
Alex Perez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.5
Strike accuracy
53.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
Tatsuro Taira Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.5
Strike accuracy
47%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
24s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 19, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira
Flyweight
Matheus Nicolau
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.3
Strike accuracy
38.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Asu Almabayev Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.3
Strike accuracy
40.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
105.7s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 4, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
Bantamweight
Louis Smolka
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
71.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Vince Morales Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m02s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
55.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 15, 2014
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
Women's Bantamweight
Jessica Eye Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m30s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
40
Strike accuracy
43.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Leslie Smith
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
28.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 27, 2010
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
Welterweight
Georges St-Pierre Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.8
Strike accuracy
74.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.2
Control time (Per Rnd)
246.2s
Dan Hardy
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0.8
Strike accuracy
14.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.2s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 10, 2023
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
Women's Bantamweight
Amanda Nunes Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.4
Strike accuracy
53.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.2
Takedown accuracy
46.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
84s
Irene Aldana
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.2
Strike accuracy
28.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 8, 2023
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez
catch/open/unknown
Tatsuro Taira Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.3
Strike accuracy
78.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
197.7s
Edgar Chairez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
65.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
8.3s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 11, 2012
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
Featherweight
Dennis Bermudez Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m43s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
128s
Tommy Hayden
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
22.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 3, 2007
UFC 67: All or Nothing
Middleweight
Terry Martin Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m14s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
100%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
Jorge Rivera
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 16, 2024
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
Lightweight
David Onama Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
40.3
Strike accuracy
56.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
87.7s
Roberto Romero
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.7
Strike accuracy
47.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
24.7s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 3, 2007
UFC 68: The Uprising
Welterweight
Jon Fitch Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m05s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.5
Strike accuracy
45.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
131s
Luigi Fioravanti
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
56%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
18.5s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 23, 2012
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
Heavyweight
Fabricio Werdum Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31
Strike accuracy
53.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
Mike Russow
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
18.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 7, 2009
UFC 96: Jackson vs Jardine
Light Heavyweight
Jason Brilz Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.3
Strike accuracy
33%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
158.7s
Tim Boetsch
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
41.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 19, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
Women's Strawweight
Diana Belbita
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29
Strike accuracy
34.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14.7s
Gloria de Paula Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.3
Strike accuracy
50.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
108s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Liu Ce Levi Rodrigues Jr.
UFC Record — 0-1
Height — 6' 0"
Weight 205 lbs. 205 lbs.
Reach — 76"
Stance — Orthodox
Age 29 29

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

No recorded UFC statistics for Liu Ce.

Stat Liu Ce Levi Rodrigues Jr.
Per Round Average
Strikes — 5.5
Strike accuracy — 34.4%
Takedowns — 0
Takedown accuracy — 0%
Sub attempts — 0
Control time — 0s
Knockdowns — 0
Knockdowns absorbed — 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. — 90.9%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. — 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. — -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. — 11
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. — 63.6%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. — 0.0%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. — 36.4%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. — 19.5
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. — 1.5
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. — Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. — No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. — No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. — 100.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. — 100.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. — 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. — 100.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. — 100.0%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. — 0.0%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. — 0.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. — 6:40
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. — 1,483.3
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. — 0.073
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. — Peak

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Liu Ce 52.9% 1.51 66.2% -20.1%
Levi Rodrigues Jr. 47.1% 2.64 37.9% +24.3%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake No bet recommended at the price we recorded.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Liu Ce Levi Rodrigues Jr.
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -227 1.44 +140 2.40
DraftKings -196 1.51 +164 2.64
FanDuel -196 1.51 +152 2.52
Bovada -204 1.49 +173 2.73
BetOnline -204 1.49 +177 2.77

Odds captured Aug 25, 2026, 6:01 AM

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