FightChoice Intelligence Report

Alex Perez
vs
Sumudaerji

Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji

https://fightchoice.app/events/alex-perez-vs-sumudaerji-prediction-2026-08-29

Flyweight

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · Aug 29, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 8, 2026, 00:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Alex Perez Sumudaerji
Statistical Model δ 62% weight 34.5% 65.5%
Statistical Model β 36% weight 24.5% 75.5%
Statistical Model ε 2% weight 23.0% 77.0%
Ensemble 20.0% 80.0%
Predicted Winner
Sumudaerji
80.0%
Confidence
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 1m15s (11m15s total)
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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to their career statistics as they stood going into the fight — 37 of them, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units, and far more than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Alex Perez Sumudaerji
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 6, 2023
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
Lightweight
Matt Frevola Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m08s
Strikes (Per Rnd)
35
Strike accuracy
46.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
Drew Dober
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
33.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 18, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield
Light Heavyweight
Philipe Lins Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m49s
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
40.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Ovince Saint Preux
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 20, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny
Welterweight
Neil Magny
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2.4
Strike accuracy
24%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.2
Control time (Per Rnd)
27s
Michael Chiesa Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.8
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.8
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
184.2s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 30, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje
Featherweight
Josh Emmett Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m14s
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.3
Strike accuracy
25.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
Michael Johnson
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
18.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 8, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa
Lightweight
Melvin Guillard
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.3
Strike accuracy
21.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Michael Johnson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
32.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
24.7s

Tale of the Tape

Stat Alex Perez Sumudaerji
UFC Record 8-6-1 6-4-1
Height 5' 6" 5' 8"
Weight 125 lbs. 125 lbs.
Reach 65" 72"
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Age 34 30

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Alex Perez Sumudaerji
Per Round Average
Strikes 16.5 20.0
Strike accuracy 45.5% 50.5%
Takedowns 0.6 0.2
Takedown accuracy 45.5% 37.5%
Sub attempts 0.2 0.2
Control time 63s 25.8s
Knockdowns 0.22 0.12
Knockdowns absorbed 0.04 0.04
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 57.1% 74.1%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 1 3
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 14 27
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 58.9% 61.7%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 17.7% 14.6%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 23.4% 23.7%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 12.64 10.88
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.36 0.58
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.09 1.04
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.14 0.45
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.5 3
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No Yes
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 75.0% 75.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 70.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 25.0% 5.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 83.3% 85.7%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 72.5% 81.3%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 13.3% 7.7%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 14.2% 11.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 7:04 11:08
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,537.1 1,529.3
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.164 0.140
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak

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