FightChoice Intelligence Report

Dan Hooker
vs
Salahdine Parnasse

Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse

https://fightchoice.app/events/dan-hooker-vs-salahdine-parnasse-prediction-2026-09-05

Lightweight

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Sep 5, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 15, 2026, 00:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Dan Hooker Salahdine Parnasse
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 67.1% 32.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 28% weight 77.5% 22.5%
Statistical Model β 27% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 25% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Ensemble 66.3% 33.7%
Predicted Winner
Dan Hooker
66.3%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
4th Round at 1m15s (16m15s total)
Chance the fight is still going at the end of each round
End of round
26% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Dan Hooker Salahdine Parnasse
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 16, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
catch/open/unknown
Modestas Bukauskas Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
45%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
45s
Christian Edwards
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
50.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
87.3s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 21, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Welterweight
Phil Rowe
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
48.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
59.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
105.7s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 23, 2021
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
Lightweight
Dan Hooker
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
42.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Michael Chandler Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m30s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
70.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 26, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates
Lightweight
Evan Elder Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
38.3
Strike accuracy
54.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.3s
Gauge Young
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
44.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
54% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 13, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
catch/open/unknown
King Green Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.7
Strike accuracy
46.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14.7s
Lance Gibson Jr.
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
41.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
23.3s
54% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 25, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Welterweight
Max Griffin
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
44.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
44.4%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
21s
Victor Valenzuela Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.7
Strike accuracy
45.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
54% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 31, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
Middleweight
Charlie Ontiveros
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
100%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Kevin Holland Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m39s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
91.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
133s
53% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 10, 2021
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
Bantamweight
Sean O'Malley Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m33s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
76.7
Strike accuracy
72.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.3s
Kris Moutinho
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
32.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
52% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 26, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates
Bantamweight
Malcolm Wellmaker Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Cameron Saaiman
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
52% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 5, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai
Featherweight
Brian Kelleher Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m39s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Ray Rodriguez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
20%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
52% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 15, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2
Featherweight
Kevin Vallejos Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m09s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
51.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
SeungWoo Choi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
36.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
51% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 5, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font
Featherweight
Dennis Buzukja
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
36.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
50s
Sean Woodson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.7
Strike accuracy
56.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
80%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
117.3s
51% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 9, 2024
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
Welterweight
Michael Page Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
66.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28.7s
Kevin Holland
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.7
Strike accuracy
47.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
87.3s
51% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 25, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Light Heavyweight
Dustin Jacoby
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
36.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Muhammad Saidov Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m49s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30
Strike accuracy
45.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
51% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 18, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott
Lightweight
Jai Herbert Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m05s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
67.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27s
Mandel Nallo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
51.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Dan Hooker Salahdine Parnasse
UFC Record 14-10 —
Height 6' 0" —
Weight 155 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach 75" —
Stance Switch —
Age 36 28

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Dan Hooker Salahdine Parnasse
Per Round Average
Strikes 21.3 —
Strike accuracy 48.7% —
Takedowns 0.2 —
Takedown accuracy 33.3% —
Sub attempts 0.2 —
Control time 46.5s —
Knockdowns 0.16 —
Knockdowns absorbed 0.04 —
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 58.3% 100.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 100.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -2 3
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 24 3
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 62.3% 0.0%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 18.3% 0.0%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 19.5% 0.0%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 21.84 0.000
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.44 0.000
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.47 —
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.52 —
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 5 —
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. Yes No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 64.3% 33.3%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 33.3%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 14.3% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 60.0% 0.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 84.4% 0.0%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 8.5% 0.0%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 7.1% 0.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 10:08 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,570.6 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.210 0.057
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Early

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