FightChoice Intelligence Report

Yair Rodriguez
vs
Jean Silva

Yair Rodriguez vs Jean Silva

https://fightchoice.app/events/yair-rodriguez-vs-jean-silva-prediction-2026-09-12

Featherweight

Noche UFC: Rodriguez vs. Silva · Sep 12, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 22, 2026, 00:05 UTC

Model Breakdown
Yair Rodriguez Jean Silva
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 42.9% 57.1%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 51.0% 49.0%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 40.0% 60.0%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 24.3% 75.7%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 40.1% 59.9%
Ensemble 34.8% 65.2%
Predicted Winner
Jean Silva
65.2%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 3m45s (13m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

30% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Yair Rodriguez 18.2% 11.0% 5.6% 34.8%
Jean Silva 34.1% 20.6% 10.4% 65.2%
281 historical bouts 52.3% 31.7% 16.0% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

52% Reached the judges
48% Ended early
32% KO/TKO 16% Submission 6:51 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Yair Rodriguez Jean Silva
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 3, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi
Welterweight
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
37.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
Abubakar Nurmagomedov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.7
Strike accuracy
53.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
12.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
125.3s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 26, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates
Featherweight
Giga Chikadze
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.3
Strike accuracy
47.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
David Onama Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
56.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
125s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 14, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira
Women's Strawweight
Randa Markos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
46.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20s
Amanda Ribas Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.3
Strike accuracy
53.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
148s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 19, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba
Women's Flyweight
Maryna Moroz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.7
Strike accuracy
29.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Jennifer Maia Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36.3
Strike accuracy
43.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
34.7s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 22, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes
Middleweight
Brad Tavares
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
23.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Bruno Silva Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m35s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
45.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 21, 2009
UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2
Light Heavyweight
Forrest Griffin Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
34%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
23.7s
Tito Ortiz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
32%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
83s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 4, 2016
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
Women's Strawweight
Jessica Penne
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.5
Strike accuracy
29.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Jessica Andrade Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m56s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
58.5
Strike accuracy
57.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16.5s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 1, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov
Women's Flyweight
Melissa Gatto
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.3
Strike accuracy
45.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
59s
Ariane da Silva Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
44.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15.7s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 17, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
Flyweight
Carlos Hernandez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
23.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
HyunSung Park Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m26s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
63.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
33s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 7, 2018
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
Welterweight
Curtis Millender Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
40.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.3s
Max Griffin
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
85.7s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 10, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
Middleweight
Rafael Natal
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
47.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
95.3s
Ed Herman Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
58.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
59s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 22, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura
Featherweight
Josh Culibao
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.7
Strike accuracy
39%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
30s
Lerone Murphy Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.7
Strike accuracy
54.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
152.7s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 22, 2022
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
Welterweight
Belal Muhammad Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m47s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
40
Strike accuracy
38.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Sean Brady
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29
Strike accuracy
49.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 10, 2016
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
Middleweight
Brad Tavares Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
46%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
40s
Caio Magalhaes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
32.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
14.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
55.7s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 28, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
Featherweight
Jeremy Stephens
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Jose Aldo Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m19s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29
Strike accuracy
46%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
24s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Yair Rodriguez Jean Silva
UFC Record 11-4-1 6-1
Height 5' 11" 5' 7"
Weight 145 lbs. 145 lbs.
Reach 71" 69"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 33 29

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Yair Rodriguez Jean Silva
Per Round Average
Strikes 21.4 19.6
Strike accuracy 46.9% 53%
Takedowns 0.2 0.4
Takedown accuracy 29.4% 71.4%
Sub attempts 0.2 0.2
Control time 23.3s 5.5s
Knockdowns 0.11 0.36
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.07
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 71.4% 69.7%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -2 1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 14 33
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 55.5% 65.0%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 19.2% 27.4%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 25.3% 7.7%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 18.67 19
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.64 0.5
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.34 0.21
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.48 0.14
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.33 3
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 82.6%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 40.0% 34.8%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 10.0% 47.8%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 75.0% 70.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 79.4% 83.6%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 6.8% 12.0%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 13.8% 4.4%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 14:02 8:34
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,590.1 1,582.5
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.133 0.228
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak

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