FightChoice Intelligence Report

Ignacio Bahamondes
vs
Muslim Salikhov

Ignacio Bahamondes vs Muslim Salikhov

https://fightchoice.app/events/ignacio-bahamondes-vs-muslim-salikhov-prediction-2026-09-12

Welterweight

Noche UFC: Rodriguez vs. Silva · Sep 12, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 22, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Ignacio Bahamondes Muslim Salikhov
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 79.9% 20.1%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 75.8% 24.2%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 58.1% 41.9%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 69.8% 30.2%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 71.8% 28.2%
Ensemble 80.0% 20.0%
Predicted Winner
Ignacio Bahamondes
80.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

55% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Ignacio Bahamondes 39.0% 25.6% 15.4% 80.0%
Muslim Salikhov 9.8% 6.4% 3.8% 20.0%
281 historical bouts 48.8% 32.0% 19.2% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

49% Reached the judges
51% Ended early
32% KO/TKO 19% Submission 5:34 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Ignacio Bahamondes Muslim Salikhov
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 2, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2
Bantamweight
Marlon Moraes Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m17s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
43.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
75s
Raphael Assuncao
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
16.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 19, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba
Welterweight
Andre Fialho
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.7
Strike accuracy
25.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.7s
Muslim Salikhov Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m03s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
58.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
62.3s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 18, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Middleweight
Dricus Du Plessis Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.2
Strike accuracy
49.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.2s
Kamaru Usman
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.4
Strike accuracy
39.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.8s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 1, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa
Light Heavyweight
Tyson Pedro
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.3
Strike accuracy
70.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.7s
Mauricio Rua Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 0m43s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
53.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
106.7s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 14, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira
Flyweight
Brandon Moreno Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
40.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
75.3s
Jussier Formiga
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
46.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
11.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
84s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 23, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori
Middleweight
Gregory Rodrigues Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m13s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34
Strike accuracy
75.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
100s
JunYong Park
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28
Strike accuracy
51.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14.5s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 10, 2016
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
Middleweight
Kelvin Gastelum Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m45s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.7
Strike accuracy
56.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
23.3s
Tim Kennedy
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
41.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
37.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
77.3s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 27, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith
Light Heavyweight
Misha Cirkunov Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m40s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
61.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
40s
Patrick Cummins
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
86s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 23, 2010
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
Welterweight
Daniel Roberts Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m13s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
20%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Mike Guymon
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 27, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith
Welterweight
Sean Strickland Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m10s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32.5
Strike accuracy
36.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
18.5s
Nordine Taleb
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
50.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 22, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
Bantamweight
Song Yadong Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28
Strike accuracy
47.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Henry Cejudo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.3
Strike accuracy
50.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 28, 2010
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
Welterweight
Nate Diaz Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m02s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31.3
Strike accuracy
28.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
48s
Marcus Davis
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.3
Strike accuracy
25.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 7, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez
Bantamweight
Felipe Arantes Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m39s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1.5
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
18.5s
Jerrod Sanders
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
149.5s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 15, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta
Middleweight
Zak Cummings Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
40.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
41.3s
Trevor Smith
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
52.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 22, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov
Lightweight
Al Iaquinta Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m38s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
63.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
Diego Sanchez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
26.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Ignacio Bahamondes Muslim Salikhov
UFC Record 6-4 9-5
Height 6' 3" 5' 11"
Weight 155 lbs. 170 lbs.
Reach 75" 70"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 28 42

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Ignacio Bahamondes Muslim Salikhov
Per Round Average
Strikes 27 14.7
Strike accuracy 45.5% 49.7%
Takedowns 0 0.3
Takedown accuracy 0% 32.1%
Sub attempts 0.2 0
Control time 19.3s 17s
Knockdowns 0.21 0.17
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.10
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 75.0% 64.3%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -2 -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 24 14
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 54.9% 52.9%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 23.3% 29.3%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 21.8% 17.8%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 19.38 12.93
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.46 0.28
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.65 0.56
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.8 0.76
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.000 1
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 72.2% 55.6%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 61.1% 55.6%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 11.1% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 16.7% 80.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 88.3% 83.8%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 6.5% 6.6%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 5.2% 9.6%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 11:10 9:02
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,528.9 1,566.0
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.189 0.120
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak

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