FightChoice Intelligence Report

Tommy McMillen
vs
Marwan Rahiki

Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki

https://fightchoice.app/events/tommy-mcmillen-vs-marwan-rahiki-prediction-2026-09-12

Featherweight

Noche UFC: Rodriguez vs. Silva · Sep 12, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 22, 2026, 00:05 UTC

Model Breakdown
Tommy McMillen Marwan Rahiki
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 55.2% 44.8%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 58.9% 41.1%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 40.4% 59.6%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 76.9% 23.1%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 92.9% 7.1%
Ensemble 72.3% 27.7%
Predicted Winner
Tommy McMillen
72.3%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 3m45s (8m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

31% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 87 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 87 similar fights By submission *Based on 87 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Tommy McMillen 39.9% 16.6% 15.8% 72.3%
Marwan Rahiki 15.3% 6.4% 6.0% 27.7%
87 historical bouts 55.2% 23.0% 21.8% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

87 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 87 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

55% Reached the judges
45% Ended early
23% KO/TKO 22% Submission 4:59 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Tommy McMillen Marwan Rahiki
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 14, 2012
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
Middleweight
Mike Massenzio
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Rousimar Palhares Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m03s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 10, 2012
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le
Welterweight
Paulo Thiago
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0.7
Strike accuracy
20%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.7s
Dong Hyun Kim Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.3
Strike accuracy
55%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
243.7s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 3, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler
Light Heavyweight
Kennedy Nzechukwu Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
40.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Darko Stosic
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
44.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42.7s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 11, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili
Bantamweight
Jonathan Martinez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
69.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
123s
Said Nurmagomedov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
60.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
87s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 4, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac
Bantamweight
Toshiomi Kazama
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Rinya Nakamura Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m33s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
44%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 24, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho
Middleweight
Edmen Shahbazyan
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
42.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
70.5s
Gerald Meerschaert Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m12s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.5
Strike accuracy
47.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
10.5s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 12, 2011
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos
Bantamweight
Cole Escovedo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
41.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
38.3s
Alex Caceres Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34
Strike accuracy
58.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
17s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 23, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori
Featherweight
SeungWoo Choi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.5
Strike accuracy
33.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.5s
Alex Caceres Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m31s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
71.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
24.5s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 24, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens
Welterweight
Ben Saunders
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.5
Strike accuracy
41.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.5s
Alan Jouban Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m38s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
39
Strike accuracy
55.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 9, 2013
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2
Lightweight
Thiago Tavares Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m38s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
63.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
77s
Justin Salas
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
23.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 10, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland
Lightweight
Mateusz Gamrot Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m22s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.5
Strike accuracy
61.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
25s
Scott Holtzman
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
20.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 7, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik
Featherweight
Matt Sayles
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Bryce Mitchell Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m20s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
85.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
239s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 8, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson
Middleweight
Phil Hawes Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
65.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
111.3s
Kyle Daukaus
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.3
Strike accuracy
34.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
84.3s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 26, 2013
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
Featherweight
Erik Koch
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
31.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10s
Ricardo Lamas Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m32s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
57.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
98s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 25, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot
Bantamweight
Mario Bautista Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m27s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
35.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
88s
Brian Kelleher
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Tommy McMillen Marwan Rahiki
Career Record 11-0 9-0
Height 6' 0" —
Weight 145 lbs. 145 lbs.
Reach 74" —
Stance Orthodox —
Age 28 —

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Tommy McMillen Marwan Rahiki
Per Round Average
Strikes 81.5 37.3
Strike accuracy 50.4% 54.9%
Takedowns 0 0
Takedown accuracy 0% 0%
Sub attempts 0 0
Control time 15.8s 33s
Knockdowns 0.75 0.33
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 100.0% 100.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 100.0% 100.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 5 3
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 5 3
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 72.4% 66.1%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 23.0% 17.9%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 4.6% 16.1%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 19 24.67
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0 0
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 80.0% 100.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 60.0% 100.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 20.0% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 0.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 90.8% 95.5%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 6.1% 1.8%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 3.1% 2.7%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 8:43 6:24
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,531.3 1,530.6
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.082 0.016
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Early

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