FightChoice Intelligence Report

Rei Tsuruya
vs
Kevin Borjas

Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas

https://fightchoice.app/events/rei-tsuruya-vs-kevin-borjas-prediction-2026-08-29

Flyweight

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · Aug 29, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC

Model Breakdown
Rei Tsuruya Kevin Borjas
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 49.0% 51.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 52.6% 47.4%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 60.9% 39.1%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 75.7% 24.3%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 73.3% 26.7%
Ensemble 68.0% 32.0%
Predicted Winner
Rei Tsuruya
68.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

57% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 140 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 140 similar fights By submission *Based on 140 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Rei Tsuruya 35.4% 20.4% 12.1% 68.0%
Kevin Borjas 16.7% 9.6% 5.7% 32.0%
140 historical bouts 52.1% 30.0% 17.9% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

140 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 140 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

52% Reached the judges
48% Ended early
30% KO/TKO 18% Submission 6:32 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Rei Tsuruya Kevin Borjas
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 14, 2012
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
Lightweight
Thiago Tavares Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
39.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
18.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
47.3s
Sam Stout
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
26.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 7, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez
Bantamweight
Russell Doane
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
43.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
Pedro Munhoz Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m08s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
56%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
20s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 25, 2013
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
Featherweight
Dennis Bermudez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.3
Strike accuracy
32.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
44.4%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
69.7s
Max Holloway
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
38.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 20, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
catch/open/unknown
Loopy Godinez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
44
Strike accuracy
53.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.3s
Emily Ducote
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
37.3
Strike accuracy
41.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.7s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 28, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira
Bantamweight
Damian Stasiak
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
29.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.3s
Pedro Munhoz Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.7
Strike accuracy
43%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
30%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
49.3s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 6, 2021
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
Lightweight
Islam Makhachev Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m37s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
188.7s
Drew Dober
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 2, 2011
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
Lightweight
Matt Wiman
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
35.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
31.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
151s
Dennis Siver Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.3
Strike accuracy
27.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
29.7s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 31, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi
Middleweight
Luke Barnatt
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
23.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9.3s
Sean Strickland Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
29.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.7s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 20, 2022
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
Bantamweight
Merab Dvalishvili Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
38.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
102s
Jose Aldo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
56.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 7, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3
Featherweight
Chas Skelly Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m56s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.5
Strike accuracy
38.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
82.5s
Edimilson Souza
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.5
Strike accuracy
54.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
63.5s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 20, 2013
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez
Bantamweight
TJ Dillashaw Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m22s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
47.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
62s
Hugo Viana
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
32.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 17, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland
Bantamweight
Saidyokub Kakhramonov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.5
Strike accuracy
36.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.5
Takedown accuracy
41.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
236s
Said Nurmagomedov Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m50s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.5
Strike accuracy
38.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
12.5s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 20, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov
Heavyweight
Curtis Blaydes Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.8
Strike accuracy
69.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.8
Takedown accuracy
56%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
238.4s
Alexander Volkov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.2
Strike accuracy
40.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9.2s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 21, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum
Lightweight
Roosevelt Roberts
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
32.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
34.7s
Ignacio Bahamondes Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m55s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
35
Strike accuracy
46.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
32.7s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 27, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson
Welterweight
Alex Oliveira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
35%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
26s
Mike Perry Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.7
Strike accuracy
59.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
43s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Rei Tsuruya Kevin Borjas
Career Record 8-1 11-5
Height 5' 6" 5' 5"
Weight 125 lbs. 125 lbs.
Reach 68" 68"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 24 28

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Rei Tsuruya Kevin Borjas
Per Round Average
Strikes 9.4 16.6
Strike accuracy 46.2% 42.3%
Takedowns 1.1 0
Takedown accuracy 25% 0%
Sub attempts 0.1 0
Control time 106.4s 15s
Knockdowns 0 0.19
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 66.7% 72.7%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 66.7% 40.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 1 1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 3 33
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 90.9% 73.2%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 6.1% 16.6%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 3.0% 10.2%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 10.86 27.25
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.14 0.25
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.68 0.99
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.15 1.42
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.2 0.000
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 54.2%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 37.5%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 16.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 55.6%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 56.1% 93.2%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 3.0% 5.7%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 40.9% 1.1%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 11:06 12:39
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,516.5 1,477.8
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.037 0.191
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Early Decline

Market Odds

Sportsbook Rei Tsuruya Kevin Borjas
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -833 1.12 +370 4.70
BetOnline -588 1.17 +450 5.50

Odds captured Aug 22, 2026, 12:03 AM

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