FightChoice Intelligence Report

Bilal Hasan
vs
Nilson Rojas

Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas

https://fightchoice.app/events/bilal-hasan-vs-nilson-rojas-prediction-2026-08-29

Flyweight

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · Aug 29, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 21, 2026, 00:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Bilal Hasan Nilson Rojas
Deep Learning Model α 25% weight 53.1% 46.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 27% weight 54.9% 45.1%
Statistical Model β 25% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 23% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Ensemble 53.1% 46.9%
Predicted Winner
Bilal Hasan
53.1%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

69% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Bilal Hasan 25.9% 15.9% 11.3% 53.1%
Nilson Rojas 22.9% 14.0% 10.0% 46.9%
281 historical bouts 48.8% 29.9% 21.4% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

49% Reached the judges
51% Ended early
30% KO/TKO 21% Submission 5:34 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Bilal Hasan Nilson Rojas
83% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 14, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov
Featherweight
Darren Elkins
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.3
Strike accuracy
47.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
19.7s
Alexander Volkanovski Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33.3
Strike accuracy
69.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
68.3s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 8, 2020
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
Heavyweight
Derrick Lewis Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.7
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.7s
Ilir Latifi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1.7
Strike accuracy
41.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
176.3s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 20, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
Welterweight
Leon Shahbazyan
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Levan Chokheli Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m23s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 6, 2020
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
Welterweight
Neil Magny Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.3
Strike accuracy
58.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
46.3s
Anthony Rocco Martin
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
45.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
99s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 31, 2015
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
Welterweight
Jordan Mein
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.5
Strike accuracy
38.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Thiago Alves Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m39s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.5
Strike accuracy
33.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 27, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero
Middleweight
Lyoto Machida
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.3
Strike accuracy
48.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Yoel Romero Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m38s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.7s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 30, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
Featherweight
Darren Elkins Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
49.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
157.3s
Tristan Connelly
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
56.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
19.3s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 28, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze
Featherweight
Edson Barboza
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
34.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Giga Chikadze Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m44s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
51.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.7s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 23, 2010
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
Light Heavyweight
Tito Ortiz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
28.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Matt Hamill Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
30.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
77s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 24, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2
Featherweight
Erik Silva
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s
Muhammad Naimov Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m44s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 19, 2011
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
Middleweight
Dan Miller
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.3
Strike accuracy
26.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
40s
Nate Marquardt Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
60.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
146.3s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 23, 2021
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
Women's Bantamweight
Julianna Pena Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m39s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
58.3s
Sara McMann
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
38.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
147s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 20, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny
Welterweight
Warlley Alves Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m35s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
81%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
96s
Mounir Lazzez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
100%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 10, 2016
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
Featherweight
Max Holloway Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m50s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31.3
Strike accuracy
45.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12.3s
Anthony Pettis
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.7
Strike accuracy
33.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 21, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
Light Heavyweight
Corey Anderson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.3
Strike accuracy
53.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
4
Takedown accuracy
92.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
160.7s
Patrick Cummins
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.3
Strike accuracy
31.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Bilal Hasan Nilson Rojas
Weight 125 lbs. —
Age 25 —

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

No recorded UFC statistics for Bilal Hasan.

Stat Bilal Hasan Nilson Rojas
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. — 50.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. — 50.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. — -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. — 2
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. — 0.0%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. — 0.0%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. — 0.0%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. — 1.374
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. — 0.747
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. — No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. — No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. — No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. — 0.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. — 0.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. — 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. — 0.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. — 0.0%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. — 0.0%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. — 0.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. — —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. — 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. — 0.024
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. — Early

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