FightChoice Intelligence Report

Aoriqileng
vs
Kai Asakura

Aoriqileng vs Kai Asakura

https://fightchoice.app/events/aoriqileng-vs-kai-asakura-prediction-2026-08-29

Bantamweight

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · Aug 29, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC

Model Breakdown
Aoriqileng Kai Asakura
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 48.1% 51.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 55.1% 44.9%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 53.0% 47.0%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 42.2% 57.8%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 46.9% 53.1%
Ensemble 48.4% 51.6%
Predicted Winner
Kai Asakura
51.6%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 3m45s (13m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

46% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Aoriqileng 23.3% 16.2% 9.0% 48.4%
Kai Asakura 24.8% 17.2% 9.5% 51.6%
281 historical bouts 48.0% 33.5% 18.5% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

48% Reached the judges
52% Ended early
33% KO/TKO 19% Submission 5:47 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Aoriqileng Kai Asakura
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 4, 2024
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Lightweight
Jamie Mullarkey
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
36.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Mauricio Ruffy Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m42s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
62.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 8, 2016
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale
Lightweight
Ross Pearson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
47%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42.3s
Will Brooks Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.7
Strike accuracy
53.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
91.3s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 21, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
Featherweight
Nathaniel Wood Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.3
Strike accuracy
37.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Losene Keita
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.3
Strike accuracy
43.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 17, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
Lightweight
Paul Felder Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
24.3s
James Vick
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.3
Strike accuracy
50.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
44.7s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 16, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris
Middleweight
Kevin Holland Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m39s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
77.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
Anthony Hernandez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 3, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa
Middleweight
Dustin Stoltzfus
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Abus Magomedov Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m19s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
100%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 15, 2020
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
Heavyweight
Junior Dos Santos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Jairzinho Rozenstruik Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m47s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
63.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.5s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 19, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira
Women's Bantamweight
Joselyne Edwards Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m33s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
60.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
90s
Tamires Vidal
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.3
Strike accuracy
49.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
51.7s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 5, 2011
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
Light Heavyweight
Jon Jones Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m20s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
47.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
131.5s
Ryan Bader
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2.5
Strike accuracy
20.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 6, 2010
UFC 109: Relentless
Lightweight
Mac Danzig Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.7
Strike accuracy
49.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
95s
Justin Buchholz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
23.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
47.7s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 25, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Heavyweight
Marcus Buchecha
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
61.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
14.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
34.5s
Ryan Spann Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m10s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.5
Strike accuracy
55.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
88s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 3, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi
Lightweight
Muhammad Naimov Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.5s
Jamie Mullarkey
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.5
Strike accuracy
54.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
37.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
74s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 18, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus
Welterweight
Belal Muhammad Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.3
Strike accuracy
61.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
77.8%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
239s
Stephen Thompson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.3
Strike accuracy
59.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17.3s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 1, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
Featherweight
Sodiq Yusuff Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m30s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
100%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Don Shainis
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
100%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 22, 2022
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
Welterweight
Michel Pereira Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
35.7
Strike accuracy
53%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14.7s
Andre Fialho
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Aoriqileng Kai Asakura
Career Record 26-13 22-6
Height 5' 7" 5' 8"
Weight 135 lbs. 125 lbs.
Reach 69" 69"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 33 32

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Aoriqileng Kai Asakura
Per Round Average
Strikes 19.0 9.4
Strike accuracy 49.9% 34.3%
Takedowns 0.3 0
Takedown accuracy 46.7% 0%
Sub attempts 0.1 0
Control time 30.6s 5.6s
Knockdowns 0.14 0.20
Knockdowns absorbed 0.18 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 68.4% 71.4%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 38 7
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 65.9% 70.2%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 23.9% 21.3%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 10.2% 8.5%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 22.8 12.4
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.85 1
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.18 0
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.7 0
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.5 0.000
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 38.5% 80.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 34.6% 80.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 3.8% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 41.7% 100.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 82.0% 97.9%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 5.6% 0.0%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 12.4% 2.1%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 9:36 6:11
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,486.3 1,491.0
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.171 0.036
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline

Market Odds

Sportsbook Aoriqileng Kai Asakura
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline +275 3.75 -526 1.19

Odds captured Aug 22, 2026, 12:03 AM

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