The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.
In a thrilling Featherweight matchup at UFC Fight Night, Austin Bashi and Carlos Calderon step into the Octagon with contrasting trajectories that set the stage for an exciting clash. Bashi, at 25 years old, enters with a UFC record of 1-2, showcasing a finishing rate of 55.6% and a strong grappling presence with an average of 1 takedown per round. His striking game is no slouch either, landing 8.1 significant strikes per round with a solid strike accuracy of 39.6%. However, he faces the seasoned 30-year-old Calderon, who is making his UFC debut and brings a fresh energy that could prove pivotal in this encounter.
Calderon's height advantage at 5'11" gives him a longer reach (71 inches) compared to Bashi's 70 inches, which could be crucial in a striking battle. While the odds are leaning heavily in favor of Bashi, who boasts a higher win rate of 81.8% compared to Calderon's 50.0%, the debutant's lack of UFC experience adds an element of unpredictability. With Bashi's recent struggles in the octagon and Calderon's opportunity to make a statement, fight fans are in for a captivating showdown that could echo the tales of past debut victories in the UFC.
Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Nov 5, 2026, 06:01 UTC
Model Breakdown
Austin BashiCarlos Calderon
Deep Learning Model α 30% weight88.6%11.4%
Deep Learning Model ξ 29% weight56.9%43.1%
Statistical Model β 24% weight50.0%50.0%
Statistical Model ε 17% weight50.0%50.0%
Ensemble68.9%31.1%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)
Austin Bashi's age advantage and higher win rate are key drivers across multiple models. Model ζ's strong prediction for Austin Bashi is bolstered by Carlos Calderon's lower sig strike accuracy and head strike share. The ENSEMBLE favors Austin Bashi with 69% confidence.
Statistical Model β: Model β favors Austin Bashi due to his age advantage, absorbing fewer significant strikes, and a higher win rate, despite Carlos Calderon being past his prime.
Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Austin Bashi, citing his greater distance and head strike share, height advantage, and younger age, even though Carlos Calderon's average fight duration is longer.
AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.
Predicted Winner
Austin Bashi
68.9%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
*New fighters, prediction made with limited information
Predicted Duration
1st Round at 1m15s (1m15s total)
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
69%56%51%
Rnd 1Rnd 2Rnd 3
51%
Chance of Decision
The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.
Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
Stat
Austin Bashi
Carlos Calderon
UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes
8.1
—
13.2
Strike accuracy
39.6%
—
43.9%
Takedowns
1
—
0.4
Takedown accuracy
21.2%
—
33.1%
Sub attempts
0.3
—
0.2
Control time
100.6s
—
48.9s
Knockdowns
0
—
0.08
Knockdowns absorbed
0.14
—
0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rateWins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights.
81.8%
50.0%
45.8%
recent win rateWin rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure.
60.0%
50.0%
37.6%
win streakCurrent run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses.
-1
1
-2
total fightsTotal recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC.
11
2
—
head strike shareShare of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%.
64.9%
0.0%
—
body strike shareShare of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%.
28.1%
0.0%
—
leg strike shareShare of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%.
7.0%
0.0%
—
sig strikes absorbedSignificant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better.
11.29
1.374
15.24
takedowns absorbedTakedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better.
0.43
0.747
0.4
cardio sig ratioThis fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record.
1.25
—
0.52
cardio defence ratioWhat OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record.
1.74
—
0.56
cardio takedown ratioThis fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record.
0
—
0.42
is orthodoxWhether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox.
Yes
No
—
is southpawWhether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw.
No
Yes
—
switch stanceWhether the fighter is recorded as switching stance.
No
No
—
finish rateShare of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights.
55.6%
0.0%
46.5%
KO win rateShare of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights.
0.0%
0.0%
27.9%
sub win rateShare of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights.
55.6%
0.0%
18.7%
been stopped rateShare of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%.
0.0%
100.0%
52.5%
distance strike shareShare of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%.
78.9%
0.0%
—
clinch strike shareShare of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%.
15.8%
0.0%
—
ground strike shareShare of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%.
5.3%
0.0%
—
avg fight duration (m:ss)Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them.
11:13
—
—
Elo ratingA UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value.
1,487.7
1500
1500
PageRankHow central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill.
0.068
0.020
0.072
career stageForm over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early.
Decline
Early
—
Market IntelClick here to expandHow the betting market prices this fight compared to our model's number.
