The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.
As Mitch Raposo prepares to face Marcos Degli at UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady, the dynamics of this flyweight clash promise to captivate fans. With a UFC record of 2-2, Raposo stands at 5'5" and boasts a reach of 64 inches, while the newcomer Degli, at 26 years old, enters the Octagon with an unblemished record that remains a mystery. Raposo's striking game shows an average of 9.1 significant strikes per round and a finish rate of 50%, making him a formidable opponent who knows how to capitalize on openings.
What's particularly intriguing is the stark contrast in experience. Raposo has fought a total of 8 times compared to Degli's mere 2. This disparity could play a critical role as both fighters navigate the pressure of the Octagon. Degli's lack of recorded fights might leave him vulnerable, especially considering that Raposo has demonstrated a solid takedown average and a penchant for absorbing minimal damage. As we look to the history of fighters with similar paths, one can’t help but remember when Charles Oliveira surged through the ranks, showcasing an impressive finishing ability against less experienced opponents. Will Raposo continue his journey to the top, or will Degli surprise the crowd with a breakthrough performance?
Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 28, 2026, 00:03 UTC
Model Breakdown
Mitch RaposoMarcos Degli
Deep Learning Model α 30% weight39.7%60.3%
Deep Learning Model ξ 29% weight53.7%46.3%
Statistical Model β 24% weight50.0%50.0%
Statistical Model ε 17% weight50.0%50.0%
Ensemble47.2%52.8%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)
Mitch Raposo's striking accuracy and reach advantages are key drivers for several models. Despite these individual leanings, the ensemble prediction favors Marcos Degli due to calibrated weighting, with M.D.'s height and Elo rating being significant factors in the combined outcome.
Statistical Model β: Model β favors Mitch Raposo, citing M.D.'s reach and M.R.'s past prime, but also M.D.'s height advantage.
Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Mitch Raposo, emphasizing M.R.'s striking advantages including distance strike share and reach.
AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.
Predicted Winner
Marcos Degli
52.8%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
*New fighters, prediction made with limited information
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
69%60%54%
Rnd 1Rnd 2Rnd 3
54%
Chance of Decision
The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.
Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
Stat
Mitch Raposo
Marcos Degli
UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes
9.1
—
13.2
Strike accuracy
42.4%
—
43.9%
Takedowns
0.6
—
0.4
Takedown accuracy
31.8%
—
33.0%
Sub attempts
0
—
0.2
Control time
30.3s
—
48.9s
Knockdowns
0
—
0.08
Knockdowns absorbed
0.08
—
0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rateWins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights.
50.0%
50.0%
45.8%
recent win rateWin rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure.
60.0%
50.0%
37.6%
win streakCurrent run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses.
2
-1
-2
total fightsTotal recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC.
8
2
—
head strike shareShare of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%.
70.6%
0.0%
—
body strike shareShare of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%.
25.7%
0.0%
—
leg strike shareShare of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%.
3.7%
0.0%
—
sig strikes absorbedSignificant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better.
14.42
1.374
15.2
takedowns absorbedTakedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better.
0.58
0.747
0.4
cardio sig ratioThis fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record.
1.03
—
0.52
cardio defence ratioWhat OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record.
1.48
—
0.56
cardio takedown ratioThis fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record.
1.5
—
0.42
is orthodoxWhether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox.
No
No
—
is southpawWhether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw.
No
No
—
switch stanceWhether the fighter is recorded as switching stance.
Yes
No
—
finish rateShare of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights.
50.0%
0.0%
46.5%
KO win rateShare of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights.
0.0%
0.0%
27.9%
sub win rateShare of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights.
50.0%
0.0%
18.7%
been stopped rateShare of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%.
0.0%
100.0%
52.3%
distance strike shareShare of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%.
98.2%
0.0%
—
clinch strike shareShare of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%.
1.8%
0.0%
—
ground strike shareShare of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%.
0.0%
0.0%
—
avg fight duration (m:ss)Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them.
15:00
—
—
Elo ratingA UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value.
1,504.2
1500
1500
PageRankHow central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill.
0.041
0.070
0.069
career stageForm over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early.
