FightChoice Intelligence Report

Austin Bashi
vs
Lucas Brennan

Austin Bashi vs Lucas Brennan

https://fightchoice.app/events/austin-bashi-vs-lucas-brennan-prediction-2026-11-07

Featherweight

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Nov 7, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

As Austin Bashi and Lucas Brennan prepare to clash at UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady, expect a dynamic showdown in the Featherweight division that highlights contrasting styles and skill sets. Bashi, with a record of 14-2, brings a striking-heavy game with an impressive average of 8.1 strikes landed per round and a striking accuracy of 39.6%. In contrast, Brennan, with a record of 11-3, favors submissions with a staggering finish rate of 100%, making him a dangerous grappler despite a lower volume of 3 strikes per round. This fight mirrors the intriguing matchup between Chris Camozzi and Joe Riggs back in 2016, where a striking specialist faced a grappler with lethal submission skills.

At just 25 years old, Bashi comes in with a slight edge in experience with 11 total fights compared to Brennan's 6. Bashi's grappling control is notable, with an average of 100.6 seconds per round, indicating his ability to dictate the pace and position. However, both fighters enter this bout on a decline, eager to prove they still have what it takes to compete at the top level. With Bashi's striking prowess versus Brennan's submission background, fans can expect a thrilling contest that could end in a flash or drag on to a decision, reflecting the 53.1% likelihood of fights going the distance in this weight class.

#AustinBashi #LucasBrennan #UFCFightNight #Featherweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 17, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Austin Bashi Lucas Brennan
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 52.8% 47.2%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 51.2% 48.8%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 52.2% 47.8%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 82.5% 17.5%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 71.3% 28.7%
Ensemble 67.6% 32.4%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

The ensemble prediction favors Austin Bashi, driven by Austin Bashi's significant reach advantage over Lucas Brennan and Lucas Brennan's lower Elo rating. Despite some models noting Lucas Brennan's height or southpaw stance as potential advantages, the combined prediction leans towards Austin Bashi.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Austin Bashi, citing Austin Bashi's reach advantage over Lucas Brennan and Lucas Brennan's Elo rating.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Austin Bashi, based on Austin Bashi's reach advantage and Lucas Brennan's clinch strike share.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Austin Bashi
67.6%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

57% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 286 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 286 similar fights By submission *Based on 286 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Austin Bashi 35.9% 22.0% 9.7% 67.6%
Lucas Brennan 17.2% 10.5% 4.6% 32.4%
286 historical bouts 53.1% 32.5% 14.3% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Austin Bashi Lucas Brennan
Career Record 14-2 11-3
Height 5' 6" —
Weight 145 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach 70" —
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Age 25 26

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

286 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 286 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

53% Reached the judges
47% Ended early
33% KO/TKO 14% Submission 5:26 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Austin Bashi Lucas Brennan
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 21, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy
Middleweight
Joe Riggs
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
—
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Chris Camozzi Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m26s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
84.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 11, 2015
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale
Lightweight
Joe Lauzon
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
37.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.7s
Evan Dunham Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
42.3
Strike accuracy
43.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
36.7s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 9, 2018
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
Welterweight
Colby Covington Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.8
Strike accuracy
33.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.4
Takedown accuracy
38.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
151.2s
Rafael Dos Anjos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
53%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.6
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
26.8s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 11, 2011
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
Middleweight
Mark Munoz Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
54.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
107.3s
Demian Maia
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.7
Strike accuracy
41%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
37.3s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 29, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo
Flyweight
Deiveson Figueiredo Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m54s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.5
Strike accuracy
51%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s
Joseph Benavidez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
48.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 5, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy
Middleweight
Brad Tavares Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
43.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
Gerald Meerschaert
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
45.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
94.7s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 2, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
Flyweight
Steve Erceg Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
45.3
Strike accuracy
53.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9.7s
Tim Elliott
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30
Strike accuracy
34.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
18.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.3s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 8, 2023
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
Middleweight
Chris Curtis
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
34.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
Kelvin Gastelum Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.7
Strike accuracy
44.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 17, 2012
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
Lightweight
Mark Bocek
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.3
Strike accuracy
32.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
74s
Rafael Dos Anjos Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
40.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
80%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
82.7s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 27, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till
Women's Bantamweight
Lina Lansberg Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
53.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
151s
Gina Mazany
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
42.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
60.7s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 30, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
Women's Flyweight
Gina Mazany
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
55.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
41s
Shanna Young Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m11s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.5
Strike accuracy
48%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28.5s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 19, 2025
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
Welterweight
Kevin Holland
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.3
Strike accuracy
47.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42.3s
Daniel Rodriguez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.7
Strike accuracy
51.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
71.3s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 25, 2014
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
Lightweight
Donald Cerrone Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m40s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
43.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
Adriano Martins
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
44.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 13, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad
Women's Strawweight
Angela Hill Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.7
Strike accuracy
57%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
77.3s
Ashley Yoder
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.3
Strike accuracy
29.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
53s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 18, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2
Middleweight
Jack Hermansson Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m18s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Kelvin Gastelum
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
33s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Austin Bashi Lucas Brennan UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 8.1 3 13.2
Strike accuracy 39.6% 25% 43.9%
Takedowns 1 0 0.4
Takedown accuracy 21.2% 0% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0.3 0.3 0.2
Control time 100.6s 15.7s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0 0 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0.14 0 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 81.8% 66.7% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 60.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 -1 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 11 6 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 64.9% 44.4% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 28.1% 22.2% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 7.0% 33.3% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 11.29 11 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.43 0.67 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.25 — 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.74 — 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0 — 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No Yes —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 55.6% 100.0% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 0.0% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 55.6% 100.0% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 0.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 78.9% 100.0% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 15.8% 0.0% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 5.3% 0.0% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 11:13 15:00 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,487.7 1,484.0 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.066 0.022 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline —

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