FightChoice Intelligence Report

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Jonny Parsons vs Jose Henrique

https://fightchoice.app/events/jonny-parsons-vs-jose-henrique-prediction-2026-11-07

Welterweight

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Nov 7, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expand

As Jonny Parsons steps into the octagon against Jose Henrique at UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady, the stakes are high for both fighters. Parsons, with a solid UFC record of 1-0 and a striking rate averaging 31.5 significant strikes per round at a striking accuracy of 50.8%, is looking to maintain his momentum. At 35 years old and standing 5'9" with a reach of 69 inches, Parsons is in the peak of his career, showcasing a finish rate of 80%—a statistic that certainly adds to his threat level. His recent win streak of six fights underscores his growing reputation as a formidable contender in the welterweight division.

On the other side, Jose Henrique enters the arena with an opportunity to make a name for himself, though he has yet to make his UFC debut. While he may not have a record to showcase, the welterweight matchup is likely to be a test of Parsons' striking prowess against Henrique's potential grappling game. Historically, fighters like Parsons, who are coming off a streak and have a high finish rate, often dominate in their initial bouts, reminiscent of how fighters like Vicente Luque thrived when they found their footing early in the UFC. With Parsons' impressive stats and Henrique's unknown potential, this matchup promises to deliver excitement and intrigue as they vie for victory.

#JonnyParsons #JoseHenrique #UFCFightNight #Welterweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expand

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 20, 2026, 06:01 UTC

Model Breakdown
Jonny Parsons Jose Henrique
Deep Learning Model α 30% weight 55.2% 44.8%
Deep Learning Model ξ 29% weight 78.1% 21.9%
Statistical Model β 24% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 17% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Ensemble 63.7% 36.3%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

The ensemble prediction favors Jonny Parsons, driven by significant advantages in age and reach over Jose Henrique. Model ζ's strong emphasis on Jose Henrique's striking accuracy also contributes to the prediction. Despite some models favoring Jose Henrique on specific metrics like win rate and height, the combined prediction leans towards Jonny Parsons.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Jonny Parsons, citing the age difference and reach advantage over Jose Henrique.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Jonny Parsons, pointing to reach, weight, and age advantages over Jose Henrique.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Jonny Parsons
63.7%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 1m15s (11m15s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

33% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

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Fighter IntelClick here to expand

Tale of the Tape

Stat Jonny Parsons Jose Henrique
UFC Record 1-0 —
Height 5' 9" —
Weight 170 lbs. —
Reach 69" —
Stance Orthodox —
Age 35 —

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

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Statistics IntelClick here to expand

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Jonny Parsons Jose Henrique UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 31.5 — 13.2
Strike accuracy 50.8% — 43.9%
Takedowns 0 — 0.4
Takedown accuracy 0% — 33.0%
Sub attempts 0 — 0.2
Control time 43s — 48.9s
Knockdowns 1 — 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0 — 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 76.9% 88.9% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 100.0% 80.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 6 3 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 13 9 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 66.7% 0.0% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 19.0% 0.0% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 14.3% 0.0% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 22 1.374 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0 0.747 0.4
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 80.0% 75.0% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 80.0% 75.0% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 0.0% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 66.7% 100.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 81.0% 0.0% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 11.1% 0.0% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 7.9% 0.0% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 9:57 — —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,516.7 1500 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.049 0.034 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak —

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