FightChoice Intelligence Report

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Seokhyeon Ko vs Wellington Turman

https://fightchoice.app/events/seokhyeon-ko-vs-wellington-turman-prediction-2026-11-07

Welterweight

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Nov 7, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expand

As Seokhyeon Ko prepares to square off against Wellington Turman at UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady, this welterweight clash promises to highlight contrasting trajectories in their careers. Ko enters the octagon with a solid 2-1 record, showcasing a high win rate of 66.7% and a grappling game that’s been delivering impressive control time of 168 seconds per round. His striking game is equally sharp, landing an average of 15 strikes per round at a solid accuracy of 49.8%. In stark contrast, Turman, with a 3-6 record, finds himself in a dangerous spot having lost three of his last four fights, and his grappling game has struggled, averaging only 0.5 takedowns per round with a low accuracy of 20.8%.

This matchup has echoes of past fights, where a rising prospect faced a fighter in decline. Think back to Ion Cutelaba’s decisive victory over Henrique da Silva in 2017, where a similar disparity in momentum was evident. Ko's southpaw stance may also create problems for Turman, who operates from an orthodox position. With both fighters weighing in at 170 pounds and Ko possessing a slight reach advantage, the stage is set for a compelling battle. The odds reflect a noticeable gap, favoring Ko as he aims to extend his winning ways against Turman, who desperately needs to reverse his downward spiral.

#SeokhyeonKo #WellingtonTurman #UFCFightNight #Welterweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expand

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 17, 2026, 00:05 UTC

Model Breakdown
Seokhyeon Ko Wellington Turman
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 92.3% 7.7%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 74.0% 26.0%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 77.5% 22.5%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 57.8% 42.2%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 65.3% 34.7%
Ensemble 80.0% 20.0%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Seokhyeon Ko's superior sig strikes absorbed and control time are key drivers for the ensemble prediction. Wellington Turman's longer layoff also plays a role. The ensemble favors Seokhyeon Ko, despite some models noting Wellington Turman's advantages in age and past prime.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Seokhyeon Ko, citing his better sig strikes absorbed, takedowns landed, and control time.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Seokhyeon Ko, noting his orthodox stance and Wellington Turman's lower Elo rating.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Seokhyeon Ko
80.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 1m15s (11m15s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

54% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 120 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 120 similar fights By submission *Based on 120 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Seokhyeon Ko 39.3% 28.7% 12.0% 80.0%
Wellington Turman 9.8% 7.2% 3.0% 20.0%
120 historical bouts 49.2% 35.8% 15.0% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expand

Tale of the Tape

Stat Seokhyeon Ko Wellington Turman
UFC Record 2-1 3-6
Height 5' 10" 6' 0"
Weight 170 lbs. 170 lbs.
Reach 71" 72"
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Age 33 30

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expand

How Similar Fights Ended

120 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 120 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

49% Reached the judges
51% Ended early
36% KO/TKO 15% Submission 4:59 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Seokhyeon Ko Wellington Turman
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 10, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
Light Heavyweight
Ion Cutelaba Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m22s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
83.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 22, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker
Middleweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Ismail Naurdiev Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m26s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 1, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama
Featherweight
Steve Garcia Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m34s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33
Strike accuracy
53.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
12.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 30, 2021
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
Flyweight
Tagir Ulanbekov Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
45%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
80%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
241.3s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
67.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.3s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 28, 2013
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
Middleweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Uriah Hall Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
43.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 26, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie
Women's Flyweight
JJ Aldrich Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m49s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.5
Strike accuracy
72.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
155.5s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.5
Strike accuracy
26.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
49s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 3, 2015
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
Heavyweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.7
Strike accuracy
35.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
11.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
98.7s
Ruslan Magomedov Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.7
Strike accuracy
61.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
25.3s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 8, 2018
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
Bantamweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
48.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
18.3s
Brad Katona Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.3
Strike accuracy
48.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.3s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 16, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez
Women's Strawweight
Amanda Lemos Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m48s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
57.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.5s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.5
Strike accuracy
51.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
34s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 18, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Leites
Welterweight
Leon Edwards Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
50.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
141.3s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
30.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 17, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
Bantamweight
Luke Sanders Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m01s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.5
Strike accuracy
52%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
51.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 11, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis
Welterweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
89s
Matt Brown Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m44s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
52.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 2, 2011
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
Welterweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
16.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14s
Carlos Condit Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m58s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
38.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 8, 2018
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
Middleweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.7
Strike accuracy
48.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.7s
Elias Theodorou Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30.7
Strike accuracy
43.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 17, 2012
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
Middleweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.7
Strike accuracy
26.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
136s
Francis Carmont Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.3
Strike accuracy
40.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
30.7s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expand

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Seokhyeon Ko Wellington Turman UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 15 14.9 13.2
Strike accuracy 49.8% 51.2% 43.9%
Takedowns 1.1 0.5 0.4
Takedown accuracy 58.8% 20.8% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0.1 0.2 0.2
Control time 168s 80.1s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0 0 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.05 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 66.7% 33.3% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 66.7% 40.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 -3 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 3 9 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 79.3% 58.7% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 8.9% 20.5% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 11.9% 20.8% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 7.33 19.19 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.33 0.57 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1 0.53 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.4 0.45 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.75 0.5 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. Yes No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 33.3% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 0.0% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 33.3% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 50.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 64.4% 76.0% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 3.7% 16.3% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 31.9% 7.7% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 15:00 10:44 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,517.5 1,461.4 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.053 0.029 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Early Decline —

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