FightChoice Intelligence Report

Jonny Parsons
vs
Jose Souza

Jonny Parsons vs Jose Souza

https://fightchoice.app/events/jonny-parsons-vs-jose-souza-prediction-2026-11-07

Welterweight

UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker · Nov 7, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

In the upcoming welterweight clash at UFC Fight Night, Jonny Parsons faces off against the promising Jose Souza in what promises to be a thrilling battle of contrasting styles. At 6'3", Souza enjoys a significant height and reach advantage with his 79-inch arms, while Parsons, standing at 5'9", will rely on his explosive striking and experience to close the distance. With a career record of 9-3, Parsons has shown a knack for finishing fights, boasting an impressive 80% knockout rate compared to Souza's 66.7%. This matchup has shades of the classic Carlos Condit versus Tyron Woodley bout from UFC 171, where Woodley's reach and precision overwhelmed Condit's striking finesse.

As both fighters enter the octagon, the stakes are high, especially for Parsons, who has been on a six-fight win streak and a perfect 100% recent win rate. While Souza's 90% overall win rate reflects his potential, he has yet to face an opponent with Parsons' striking output, averaging 31.5 significant strikes per round with a 50.8% accuracy. The pressure will be on Souza to utilize his height advantage effectively, but Parsons' ability to absorb strikes (just 22 per round) and his experience may tilt the bout in his favor. With the odds slightly favoring Souza, this fight could very well be a pivotal moment for both fighters' careers.

#JonnyParsons #JoseSouza #UFCFightNight #Welterweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Nov 3, 2026, 00:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Jonny Parsons Jose Souza
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 54.1% 45.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 69.5% 30.5%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 44.7% 55.3%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 14.7% 85.3%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 25.3% 74.7%
Ensemble 41.7% 58.3%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Jose Souza is favored by the ensemble prediction. The most influential factors include the reach and age advantages for Jose Souza, and Jonny Parsons being past his prime. Despite some models favoring Jonny Parsons on specific metrics like win streak and height, the combined prediction leans towards Jose Souza due to a confluence of factors across multiple models.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Jose Souza, citing his reach advantage over J.P., J.S. being past prime, J.P.'s age, J.S.'s win rate, and J.P.'s age.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Jose Souza, highlighting the reach and age advantages, and J.S.'s distance strike share, despite J.P.'s height.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Jose Souza
58.3%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 3m45s (8m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

38% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 288 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 288 similar fights By submission *Based on 288 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Jonny Parsons 21.1% 14.8% 5.8% 41.7%
Jose Souza 29.6% 20.6% 8.1% 58.3%
288 historical bouts 50.7% 35.4% 13.9% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Jonny Parsons Jose Souza
Career Record 9-3 9-1
Height 5' 9" 6' 3"
Weight 170 lbs. 170 lbs.
Reach 69" 79"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 35 24

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

288 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 288 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

51% Reached the judges
49% Ended early
35% KO/TKO 14% Submission 4:28 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Jonny Parsons Jose Souza
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 15, 2014
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
Welterweight
Tyron Woodley Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
48.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
91.5s
Carlos Condit
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.5
Strike accuracy
30.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.5s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 29, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen
Middleweight
Phil Hawes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
42.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
46s
Roman Dolidze Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m09s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 22, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker
Bantamweight
Aleksandre Topuria Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
58%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
46.7s
Bekzat Almakhan
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
32.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 13, 2016
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
Welterweight
Kyle Noke
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
57.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16.5s
Keita Nakamura Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.5
Strike accuracy
36.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
15.5s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 25, 2008
UFC 90: Silva vs Cote
Lightweight
Hermes Franca Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
49.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
Marcus Aurelio
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
38.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
11.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
36.7s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 11, 2012
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
Middleweight
Mark Munoz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Chris Weidman Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m37s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
75.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
156s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 2, 2008
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Lauzon
Lightweight
Frankie Edgar
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
34.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10.7s
Gray Maynard Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.3
Strike accuracy
29.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3
Takedown accuracy
90%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
125.7s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 5, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy
Middleweight
Robert Valentin
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.7
Strike accuracy
59%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.3s
Torrez Finney Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1.3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.7
Takedown accuracy
47.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
265.3s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 1, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov
Lightweight
Mike Davis
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.7
Strike accuracy
57.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
12.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
79.7s
Fares Ziam Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
62.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
143.7s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 6, 2013
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
Welterweight
Mike Pierce Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m55s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.5
Strike accuracy
41.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
140s
David Mitchell
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.5
Strike accuracy
38.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 7, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira
Bantamweight
Raoni Barcelos Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
40
Strike accuracy
58%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
65s
Khalid Taha
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
24.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
29s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 7, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
Flyweight
Andre Lima Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
48.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
180s
Felipe dos Santos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.7s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 23, 2016
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
Featherweight
Jason Knight Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.3
Strike accuracy
33.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15s
Jim Alers
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
41%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
67.3s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 3, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders
Middleweight
Thiago Santos Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m03s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29
Strike accuracy
70.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
100s
Anthony Smith
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
45.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
25.5s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 5, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi
Heavyweight
Alistair Overeem
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
95.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Ben Rothwell Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m19s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
63%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Jonny Parsons Jose Souza UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 31.5 24 13.2
Strike accuracy 50.8% 47.1% 43.9%
Takedowns 0 0 0.4
Takedown accuracy 0% 0% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0 0 0.2
Control time 43s 0s 48.9s
Knockdowns 1 0 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 76.9% 90.0% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 100.0% 80.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 6 4 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 13 10 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 66.7% 84.7% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 19.0% 9.7% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 14.3% 5.6% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 22 21 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0 0 0.4
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 80.0% 66.7% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 80.0% 66.7% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 0.0% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 66.7% 100.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 81.0% 98.6% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 11.1% 1.4% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 7.9% 0.0% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 9:57 15:00 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,516.7 1516 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.049 0.042 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak —
Market IntelClick here to expandHow the betting market prices this fight compared to our model's number.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Jonny Parsons Jose Souza
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline +148 2.48 -270 1.37

Odds captured Nov 3, 2026, 12:02 AM

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