FightChoice Intelligence Report

Jose Delano
vs
Murtazali Magomedov

Jose Delano vs Murtazali Magomedov

https://fightchoice.app/events/jose-delano-vs-murtazali-magomedov-prediction-2026-11-07

Featherweight

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Nov 7, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

As Jose Delano steps into the octagon against Murtazali Magomedov at UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady, fans can expect a clash between experience and emerging talent. Delano boasts an impressive career record of 17-3, showcasing his striking prowess with an average of 35.7 significant strikes per round at an accuracy of 62.2%. In contrast, Magomedov, with a 5-1 record, brings a different approach to the fight game, scoring 1 takedown per round with a striking accuracy of 71.4%. With both fighters standing at 5'8" and 5'9" and sharing a reach of 70 inches, this matchup promises to be a technical affair where Delano’s volume and precision will meet Magomedov’s grappling skill.

The stakes are high as Delano enters the fight riding a two-fight win streak, while Magomedov is no stranger to finishes, boasting a staggering 100% finish rate in his victories. This dynamic has echoes of previous matchups, like when Brunno Ferreira faced Armen Petrosyan, where the experienced fighter outshone the newcomer with a decisive finish. Delano will need to leverage his striking volume and experience to keep Magomedov at bay, while Magomedov will look to impose his ground game and capitalize on any openings. With the odds slightly favoring the more seasoned Delano, fans are in for a thrilling encounter that could very well tip in either fighter’s favor.

#JoseDelano #MurtazaliMagomedov #UFCFightNight #Featherweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 17, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Jose Delano Murtazali Magomedov
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 53.3% 46.7%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 58.1% 41.9%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 39.5% 60.5%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 42.2% 57.8%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 46.2% 53.8%
Ensemble 47.0% 53.0%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Murtazali Magomedov's superior cardio metrics and lower rate of being stopped are key drivers for the ensemble prediction. Model β also notes his advantage in age, absorbed strikes, and takedowns landed. The ensemble favors Murtazali Magomedov (53%), despite a split among individual models.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Murtazali Magomedov, citing his advantage in age, absorbed strikes, and takedowns landed against Jose Delano.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Murtazali Magomedov, pointing to his superior distance strike share and body strike share against Jose Delano.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Murtazali Magomedov
53.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 1m15s (11m15s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

50% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 97 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 97 similar fights By submission *Based on 97 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Jose Delano 24.2% 14.0% 8.7% 47.0%
Murtazali Magomedov 27.3% 15.9% 9.8% 53.0%
97 historical bouts 51.5% 29.9% 18.6% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Jose Delano Murtazali Magomedov
Career Record 17-3 5-1
Height 5' 8" 5' 9"
Weight 145 lbs. 145 lbs.
Reach 70" 70"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 30 27

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

97 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 97 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

52% Reached the judges
48% Ended early
30% KO/TKO 19% Submission 4:55 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Jose Delano Murtazali Magomedov
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 8, 2025
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
Middleweight
Armen Petrosyan
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
55.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Brunno Ferreira Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m27s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.5
Strike accuracy
48.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
36s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 23, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo
Flyweight
Carlos Hernandez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
41.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
95s
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
28%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 21, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
Welterweight
Siyar Bahadurzada Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m40s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.5
Strike accuracy
51.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
50s
Luan Chagas
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.5
Strike accuracy
29.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
77s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 15, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze
Middleweight
Jamie Pickett Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
41%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
60.7s
Joseph Holmes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
54.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
65s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 15, 2021
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
Featherweight
Kevin Aguilar
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
56.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17.3s
Tucker Lutz Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33
Strike accuracy
55.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
61.7s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 27, 2013
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
Featherweight
Steven Siler Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
45.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
135.7s
Kurt Holobaugh
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
44.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
99.7s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 4, 2023
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
Women's Strawweight
Jessica Penne
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
24%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Tabatha Ricci Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m14s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
80%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
157s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 13, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
Featherweight
Isaac Thomson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
44.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
80%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
60s
Joanderson Brito Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
57.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
159.7s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 17, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier
Flyweight
Carlos Hernandez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 4m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34
Strike accuracy
43.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.3s
Denys Bondar
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.3
Strike accuracy
44.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9.7s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 18, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield
Heavyweight
Jamal Pogues Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
55%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
45.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
116.3s
Josh Parisian
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
32.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
24s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 21, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens
Women's Strawweight
Angela Hill Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m56s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30.7
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
19.7s
Ariane Carnelossi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
38.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12.7s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 8, 2023
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
Women's Strawweight
Sam Hughes Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
44.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
140.7s
Jaqueline Amorim
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
23.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
74s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 9, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar
Welterweight
David Zawada Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m50s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
18.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Abubakar Nurmagomedov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
110s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 20, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba
Lightweight
Kaynan Kruschewsky
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.7
Strike accuracy
57.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
55.7s
Kurt Holobaugh Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30.7
Strike accuracy
53.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
107s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 4, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik
Women's Flyweight
Poliana Botelho
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
73.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Karine Silva Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m55s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
47s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Jose Delano Murtazali Magomedov UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 35.7 5 13.2
Strike accuracy 62.2% 71.4% 43.9%
Takedowns 0 1 0.4
Takedown accuracy 0% 50% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0 1 0.2
Control time 12.7s 27s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0 0 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 83.3% 83.3% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 80.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 2 1 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 6 6 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 66.4% 60.0% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 31.8% 0.0% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 1.9% 40.0% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 22.33 3 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0 0 0.4
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 20.0% 100.0% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 20.0% 60.0% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 40.0% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 100.0% 0.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 78.5% 100.0% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 21.5% 0.0% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% 0.0% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 15:00 1:17 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,515.4 1,516.6 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.058 0.041 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak —

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