FightChoice Intelligence Report

Gabriel Lorenco
vs
Alvin Hines

Gabriel Lorenco vs Alvin Hines

https://fightchoice.app/events/gabriel-lorenco-vs-alvin-hines-prediction-2026-11-07

Heavyweight

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Nov 7, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

As Gabriel Lorenco makes his UFC debut against Alvin Hines at UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady, the matchup presents a compelling clash of trajectories. Hines enters the octagon with an 0-2 record, desperately seeking redemption, while Lorenco is looking to kickstart his career in the heavyweight division at just 27 years old. Hines, at 34, stands at 6'2" and weighs in at 265 lbs, with a reach of 74 inches, but his statistics reveal a fighter at a crossroads—averaging 23.3 strikes per round but only landing 32.7% of them. This highlights his struggles in finding effective striking, as he absorbs an average of 31.75 significant strikes per round.

The fight dynamics could favor Lorenco, who has the youth and potential on his side, but without a UFC record to showcase yet, he’s stepping into unknown territory. Hines, despite his losses, has a 100% finish rate in his victories, with a significant share of his strikes directed at the head (60.2%). This matchup echoes the tale of fighters like Chris Daukaus and Tom Aspinall, who both faced tough starts but eventually found their footing. With the odds seemingly tilted in favor of Lorenco, the fight could pivot on whether Hines can finally turn the tide in his favor or if Lorenco can swiftly capitalize on his opportunity.

#GabrielLorenco #AlvinHines #UFCFightNight #Heavyweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 17, 2026, 00:05 UTC

Model Breakdown
Gabriel Lorenco Alvin Hines
Deep Learning Model α 30% weight 35.3% 64.7%
Deep Learning Model ξ 29% weight 67.6% 32.4%
Statistical Model β 24% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 17% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Ensemble 51.7% 48.3%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

The ensemble prediction favors Gabriel Lorenco, despite a majority of individual models predicting an Alvin Hines victory. This outcome is due to calibration and weighting, which adjusted the combined prediction. The most influential factors across models included G.L.'s reach and weight disadvantages against A.H., and A.H.'s higher ground strike share.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Alvin Hines, citing G.L.'s reach advantage and G.L.'s higher sig strikes absorbed.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Alvin Hines, pointing to G.L.'s weight and reach disadvantages and A.H.'s higher distance strike share.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Gabriel Lorenco
51.7%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
1st Round at 1m15s (1m15s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

49% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Gabriel Lorenco Alvin Hines
Career Record 8-1 7-2
Height — 6' 2"
Weight — 265 lbs.
Reach — 74"
Stance — Orthodox
Age 27 35

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Gabriel Lorenco Alvin Hines UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes — 23.3 13.2
Strike accuracy — 32.7% 43.9%
Takedowns — 0.3 0.4
Takedown accuracy — 10% 33.0%
Sub attempts — 0 0.2
Control time — 1.3s 48.9s
Knockdowns — 0 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed — 0.25 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 88.9% 50.0% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 100.0% 50.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 8 -2 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 9 4 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 0.0% 60.2% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 0.0% 24.7% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 0.0% 15.1% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 1.374 31.75 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.747 0 0.4
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 87.5% 100.0% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 75.0% 50.0% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 12.5% 50.0% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 100.0% 50.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% 97.8% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% 2.2% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% 0.0% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. — 8:20 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1500 1,469.5 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.042 0.011 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Decline —

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