FightChoice Intelligence Report
Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov
https://fightchoice.app/events/colby-thicknesse-vs-asaf-chopurov-prediction-2026-10-24
Bantamweight
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · Oct 24, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 3, 2026, 18:03 UTC
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)
Colby Thicknesse's reach advantage over Asaf Chopurov is a significant factor across multiple models. Model ζ also points to Asaf Chopurov's striking accuracy and win rate as favoring Colby Thicknesse. The ENSEMBLE prediction favors Colby Thicknesse (54%).
- Statistical Model β: Model β favors Colby Thicknesse, citing Colby Thicknesse's reach advantage over Asaf Chopurov and Colby Thicknesse being past his prime.
- Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Colby Thicknesse, based on Colby Thicknesse's reach advantage over Asaf Chopurov and Asaf Chopurov's striking tendencies.
AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.
*New fighters, prediction made with limited information
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.
Fighter Intel
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Colby Thicknesse | Asaf Chopurov |
|---|---|---|
| UFC Record | 2-1 | — |
| Height | 5' 7" | — |
| Weight | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach | 69" | — |
| Stance | Orthodox | — |
| Age | 27 | 24 |
Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
No recorded UFC statistics for Asaf Chopurov.
| Stat | Colby Thicknesse | Asaf Chopurov |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 16.2 | — |
| Strike accuracy | 41.1% | — |
| Takedowns | 0.2 | — |
| Takedown accuracy | 7.1% | — |
| Sub attempts | 0.6 | — |
| Control time | 71.8s | — |
| Knockdowns | 0 | — |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0 | — |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 66.7% | — |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 66.7% | — |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | 2 | — |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 3 | — |
| head strike share | 55.5% | — |
| body strike share | 28.1% | — |
| leg strike share | 16.4% | — |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 14.67 | — |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.44 | — |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.45 | — |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 1.11 | — |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 1 | — |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | — |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | — |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | — |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 0.0% | — |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 0.0% | — |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 0.0% | — |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 0.0% | — |
| distance strike share | 63.7% | — |
| clinch strike share | 6.8% | — |
| ground strike share | 29.5% | — |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 15:00 | — |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,513.1 | — |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.021 | — |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Early | — |
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