FightChoice Intelligence Report

Umar Nurmagomedov
vs
Song Yadong

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong

https://fightchoice.app/events/umar-nurmagomedov-vs-song-yadong-prediction-2026-08-29

Bantamweight

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · Aug 29, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC

Model Breakdown
Umar Nurmagomedov Song Yadong
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 51.1% 48.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 63.6% 36.4%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 61.7% 38.3%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 75.7% 24.3%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 67.5% 32.5%
Ensemble 70.3% 29.7%
Predicted Winner
Umar Nurmagomedov
70.3%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (25m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

63% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Umar Nurmagomedov 40.8% 18.5% 11.0% 70.3%
Song Yadong 17.2% 7.8% 4.6% 29.7%
281 historical bouts 58.0% 26.3% 15.7% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

58% Reached the judges
42% Ended early
26% KO/TKO 16% Submission 5:11 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Umar Nurmagomedov Song Yadong
85% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 12, 2022
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2
Bantamweight
Sergey Morozov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
49.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
75s
Douglas Silva de Andrade Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m24s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.5
Strike accuracy
57.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
27.5s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 9, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates
Women's Strawweight
Gillian Robertson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.3
Strike accuracy
48.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
29.4%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
164.3s
Luana Pinheiro
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.7s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 11, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum
Flyweight
Ray Borg Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
40.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
87.7s
Jussier Formiga
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
48.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
68s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 18, 2025
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen
Women's Flyweight
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
14.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Manon Fiorot Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m14s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
59.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 2, 2013
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
Lightweight
Gleison Tibau
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
21.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
22.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
36.3s
Evan Dunham Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30.3
Strike accuracy
38.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
31s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 11, 2017
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
Middleweight
Jacare Souza Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m41s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
38.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
74s
Tim Boetsch
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 16, 2023
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Light Heavyweight
Alonzo Menifield Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.7
Strike accuracy
58.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
41s
Dustin Jacoby
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31
Strike accuracy
62%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42.7s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 19, 2013
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
Featherweight
Nik Lentz Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
75.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3.3
Takedown accuracy
47.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
243.3s
Diego Nunes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
56.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 5, 2024
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
Women's Strawweight
Carla Esparza
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
31.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
73.3s
Tecia Pennington Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.7
Strike accuracy
53.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 28, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira
Bantamweight
Damian Stasiak
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
29.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.3s
Pedro Munhoz Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.7
Strike accuracy
43%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
30%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
49.3s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 11, 2010
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
Welterweight
John Howard
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
29.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17.7s
Thiago Alves Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.3
Strike accuracy
39.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
59.3s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 10, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer
Light Heavyweight
Devin Clark
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.7
Strike accuracy
41.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.7s
Marcin Prachnio Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33.7
Strike accuracy
53.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14.7s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 13, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira
Bantamweight
Ray Borg
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
51.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10s
Ricky Simon Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.3
Strike accuracy
46.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
63.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
107.7s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 13, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski
Welterweight
Igor Araujo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
George Sullivan Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m31s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.5
Strike accuracy
68.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
162s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 20, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov
Heavyweight
Curtis Blaydes Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.8
Strike accuracy
69.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.8
Takedown accuracy
56%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
238.4s
Alexander Volkov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.2
Strike accuracy
40.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9.2s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Umar Nurmagomedov Song Yadong
UFC Record 8-1 12-4-1
Height 5' 8" 5' 8"
Weight 135 lbs. 135 lbs.
Reach 69" 67"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 30 28

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Umar Nurmagomedov Song Yadong
Per Round Average
Strikes 18.8 20.4
Strike accuracy 56.5% 43.7%
Takedowns 1.3 0.3
Takedown accuracy 46.6% 41.4%
Sub attempts 0.1 0.1
Control time 113.3s 37.6s
Knockdowns 0.04 0.15
Knockdowns absorbed 0.08 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 95.2% 75.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 2 1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 21 16
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 68.3% 61.0%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 20.2% 19.4%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 11.5% 19.6%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 9.08 18.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.27 0.27
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.58 0.63
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.34 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1 0.4
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 45.0% 58.3%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 10.0% 41.7%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 35.0% 16.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 25.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 67.3% 85.9%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 5.9% 6.0%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 26.8% 8.1%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 14:04 12:52
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,618.4 1,616.0
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.476 0.328
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Decline

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Umar Nurmagomedov 70.3% 1.21 82.6% -14.9%
Song Yadong 29.7% 4.70 21.3% +39.4%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake No bet recommended at the price we recorded.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Umar Nurmagomedov Song Yadong
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -714 1.14 +350 4.50
DraftKings -476 1.21 +370 4.70
FanDuel -526 1.19 +350 4.50
BetOnline -500 1.20 +385 4.85

Odds captured Aug 22, 2026, 12:03 AM

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