FightChoice Intelligence Report

Alex Perez
vs
Sumudaerji

Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji

https://fightchoice.app/events/alex-perez-vs-sumudaerji-prediction-2026-08-29

Flyweight

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · Aug 29, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC

Model Breakdown
Alex Perez Sumudaerji
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 43.1% 56.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 49.0% 51.0%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 56.7% 43.3%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 23.1% 76.9%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 28.9% 71.1%
Ensemble 34.8% 65.2%
Predicted Winner
Sumudaerji
65.2%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 1m15s (11m15s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

44% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Alex Perez 18.0% 11.3% 5.6% 34.8%
Sumudaerji 33.6% 21.1% 10.4% 65.2%
281 historical bouts 51.6% 32.4% 16.0% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

52% Reached the judges
48% Ended early
32% KO/TKO 16% Submission 6:10 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Alex Perez Sumudaerji
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 13, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad
Bantamweight
Davey Grant Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m03s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
43.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.5s
Jonathan Martinez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.5
Strike accuracy
40.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12.5s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 10, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Dos Santos
Light Heavyweight
Igor Pokrajac
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
47.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
66s
Jan Blachowicz Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32.7
Strike accuracy
64.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
168.7s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 20, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
Lightweight
Diego Ferreira Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m50s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
42.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.5s
Michael Johnson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
55.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 24, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka
Featherweight
Darren Elkins Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
30.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
63.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
170s
Robert Whiteford
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.7
Strike accuracy
36.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 7, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3
Lightweight
Yan Cabral
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.3
Strike accuracy
47.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
104.7s
Johnny Case Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.7
Strike accuracy
46.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
47s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 11, 2021
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Welterweight
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30.3
Strike accuracy
39.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.7s
Geoff Neal Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.3
Strike accuracy
52.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 12, 2007
UFC Fight Night: Stout vs Fisher
Welterweight
Luigi Fioravanti
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
37.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
Forrest Petz Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
14.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 16, 2023
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Women's Bantamweight
Karol Rosa
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
68
Strike accuracy
58.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Irene Aldana Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
48.3
Strike accuracy
47.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 16, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio
Welterweight
Bobby Nash
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.5
Strike accuracy
39.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
90.5s
Danny Roberts Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
36.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 27, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2
Lightweight
King Green Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36.7
Strike accuracy
56.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
65.3s
Erik Koch
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
38.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
39s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 2, 2016
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
Lightweight
Joe Duffy
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
37%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.7s
Dustin Poirier Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
52.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
187.3s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 13, 2016
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
Bantamweight
Michael McDonald
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
46.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
John Lineker Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m43s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
47.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 27, 2010
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
Lightweight
Mark Bocek
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.7
Strike accuracy
37.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
197.3s
Jim Miller Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.7
Strike accuracy
34.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
32s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 25, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Women's Bantamweight
Norma Dumont
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
51%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
43s
Joselyne Edwards Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
46.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
47s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 11, 2015
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
Flyweight
Louis Smolka Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.7
Strike accuracy
51.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
240s
Neil Seery
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
48.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.3s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Alex Perez Sumudaerji
UFC Record 8-6-1 6-4-1
Height 5' 6" 5' 8"
Weight 125 lbs. 125 lbs.
Reach 65" 72"
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Age 34 30

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Alex Perez Sumudaerji
Per Round Average
Strikes 16.5 20.0
Strike accuracy 45.5% 50.5%
Takedowns 0.6 0.2
Takedown accuracy 45.5% 37.5%
Sub attempts 0.2 0.2
Control time 63s 25.8s
Knockdowns 0.22 0.12
Knockdowns absorbed 0.04 0.04
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 57.1% 74.1%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 1 3
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 14 27
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 58.9% 61.7%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 17.7% 14.6%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 23.4% 23.7%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 12.64 10.88
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.36 0.58
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.09 1.04
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.14 0.45
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.5 3
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No Yes
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 75.0% 75.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 70.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 25.0% 5.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 83.3% 85.7%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 72.5% 81.3%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 13.3% 7.7%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 14.2% 11.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 7:04 11:08
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,537.1 1,529.3
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.164 0.140
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak

Betting Edge

Recommended stake 1% of bankroll on Sumudaerji at 1.44 (proline) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Alex Perez Sumudaerji
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline +140 2.40 -227 1.44

Odds captured Aug 22, 2026, 12:03 AM

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