FightChoice Intelligence Report

Wes Schultz
vs
Jackson McVey

Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey

https://fightchoice.app/events/wes-schultz-vs-jackson-mcvey-prediction-2026-08-22

Middleweight

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Aug 22, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC

Outdated predictions due to model or data updates

Model Breakdown
Wes Schultz Jackson McVey
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 48.1% 51.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 61.6% 38.4%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 43.4% 56.6%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 41.4% 58.6%
Ensemble 49.0% 51.0%
Predicted Winner
Jackson McVey
51.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
1st Round at 3m45s (3m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

22% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Wes Schultz 24.9% 16.1% 8.2% 49.2%
Jackson McVey 25.7% 16.6% 8.5% 50.8%
281 historical bouts 50.5% 32.7% 16.7% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

51% Reached the judges
49% Ended early
33% KO/TKO 17% Submission 7:09 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Wes Schultz Jackson McVey
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 27, 2008
UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008
Middleweight
Dean Lister
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
15.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
Yushin Okami Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
50.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
178s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 30, 2022
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
Lightweight
Rafael Alves
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
54.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
47s
Drew Dober Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m30s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.7
Strike accuracy
41.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.3s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 9, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev
Bantamweight
Ricky Turcios
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
11.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Aiemann Zahabi Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
51.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 22, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt
Middleweight
Jack Hermansson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
55%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
143.7s
Edmen Shahbazyan
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
43.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
37s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 25, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot
Bantamweight
Brian Kelleher
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Mario Bautista Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m27s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
35.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
88s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 9, 2017
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
Lightweight
Mitch Clarke
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
33.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s
Alex White Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m36s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.5
Strike accuracy
49.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 2, 2011
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
Lightweight
George Sotiropoulos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
8.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Rafael Dos Anjos Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
20%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 4, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
Middleweight
Tor Troeng
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
31.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
84s
Krzysztof Jotko Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.7
Strike accuracy
75.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
66s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 3, 2015
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
Lightweight
Rodrigo Damm
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
30.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Evan Dunham Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
50.7
Strike accuracy
44.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.3s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 19, 2014
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Brandao
Featherweight
Diego Brandao
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
40.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
22s
Conor McGregor Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m05s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
36.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
141s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 4, 2016
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
Featherweight
Cole Miller
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
26%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
51s
Alex Caceres Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32.3
Strike accuracy
62.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
60.3s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 9, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
Middleweight
Daniel Kelly
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Sam Alvey Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m49s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
61.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 11, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2
Welterweight
Seth Baczynski
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Leon Edwards Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m08s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
100%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 17, 2012
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
Welterweight
Martin Kampmann
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Johny Hendricks Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m46s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 9, 2013
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2
Middleweight
Daniel Sarafian
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
47.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
39.7s
Cezar Ferreira Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
31.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
168.3s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Wes Schultz Jackson McVey
Career Record 9-3 7-2
Height 6' 2" 6' 4"
Weight 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach 77" 77"
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Age 30 27

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Wes Schultz Jackson McVey
Per Round Average
Strikes 3.8 20.3
Strike accuracy 50% 69.2%
Takedowns 0 0
Takedown accuracy 0% 0%
Sub attempts 1.3 0.3
Control time 31.3s 68.5s
Knockdowns 0.25 0.25
Knockdowns absorbed 0.50 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 62.5% 40.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 40.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 1 1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 8 5
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 40.0% 58.0%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 53.3% 40.7%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 6.7% 1.2%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 6.75 10.5
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.5 1
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0.000
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No Yes
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 80.0% 100.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 0.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 80.0% 100.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 66.7% 100.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 60.0% 18.5%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 40.0% 64.2%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% 17.3%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 7:10 4:09
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,500.7 1,487.1
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.030 0.024
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Wes Schultz 49.0% 2.50 40.0% +23.1%
Jackson McVey 51.0% 1.56 64.1% -20.8%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake No bet recommended at the price we recorded.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Wes Schultz Jackson McVey
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline +128 2.28 -204 1.49
DraftKings +150 2.50 -179 1.56
FanDuel +152 2.52 -179 1.56
BetMGM +150 2.50 -185 1.54
Bovada +153 2.53 -179 1.56
BetOnline +151 2.51 -172 1.58

Odds captured Aug 22, 2026, 12:03 AM

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