FightChoice Intelligence Report

MarQuel Mederos
vs
Mason Jones

MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones

https://fightchoice.app/events/marquel-mederos-vs-mason-jones-prediction-2026-08-22

Lightweight

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Aug 22, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 06:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
MarQuel Mederos Mason Jones
Deep Learning Model α 16% weight 44.8% 55.2%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 53.4% 46.6%
Statistical Model δ 19% weight 45.6% 54.4%
Statistical Model β 22% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 20% weight 39.3% 60.7%
Ensemble 45.4% 54.6%
Predicted Winner
Mason Jones
54.6%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)
Chance the fight is still going at the end of each round
End of round
70% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight MarQuel Mederos Mason Jones
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 23, 2016
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
Flyweight
Henry Cejudo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
35.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
33s
Demetrious Johnson Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m49s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
63.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 6, 2014
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
Welterweight
Robbie Lawler Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.2
Strike accuracy
57.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12.4s
Johny Hendricks
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.2
Strike accuracy
48.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
29.4%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.2
Control time (Per Rnd)
124.2s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 19, 2011
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
Lightweight
Rafael Dos Anjos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
26%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
40.3s
Gleison Tibau Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
43.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
34.7s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 8, 2018
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
Women's Strawweight
Nina Nunes Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32
Strike accuracy
45.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Claudia Gadelha
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
43.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
67s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 8, 2018
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
Women's Strawweight
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Jessica Andrade Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m58s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
38
Strike accuracy
52.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 16, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez
Light Heavyweight
Dustin Jacoby Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m13s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
60.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Da Woon Jung
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
35.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 10, 2021
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
Middleweight
Brad Tavares Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28
Strike accuracy
56%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Omari Akhmedov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
28.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
22.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
34s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 12, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira
Welterweight
Chris Curtis Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.3
Strike accuracy
41.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.7s
Max Griffin
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.7
Strike accuracy
33.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
21s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 11, 2021
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Bantamweight
Pedro Munhoz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.7
Strike accuracy
43.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.3s
Dominick Cruz Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34.3
Strike accuracy
37.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
11.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 29, 2012
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II
Lightweight
Melvin Guillard
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
50.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
19.7s
Jamie Varner Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.7
Strike accuracy
33%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
70%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
77s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 12, 2020
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
Women's Strawweight
Mackenzie Dern Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.3
Strike accuracy
47.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
51.3s
Virna Jandiroba
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
47%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
54.7s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 16, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos Anjos
Welterweight
Robbie Lawler
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.2
Strike accuracy
40.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
52.8s
Rafael Dos Anjos Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34.4
Strike accuracy
59.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.4
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
94.6s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 22, 2012
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
Middleweight
Brian Stann
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
40.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
22.3s
Michael Bisping Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.3
Strike accuracy
45.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
30.8%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
90.3s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 2, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park
Women's Strawweight
Ketlen Souza
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
54.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
33.7s
Piera Rodriguez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.3
Strike accuracy
42.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
70%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
92s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 27, 2024
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
Heavyweight
Tom Aspinall Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
73.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s
Curtis Blaydes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
45.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat MarQuel Mederos Mason Jones
Career Record 11-1 18-2
Height 5' 10" 5' 10"
Weight 155 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach 69" 74"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 29 31

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat MarQuel Mederos Mason Jones
Per Round Average
Strikes 27.2 28.5
Strike accuracy 58.3% 42.8%
Takedowns 0.1 1.1
Takedown accuracy 8.3% 55.3%
Sub attempts 0 0.1
Control time 33.3s 81s
Knockdowns 0.08 0.05
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.11
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 83.3% 90.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 100.0% 100.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 5 7
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 6 20
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 52.3% 69.1%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 19.2% 22.4%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 28.5% 8.5%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 15.44 23.12
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.56 0.35
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.05 0.86
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.84 0.69
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.000 1.33
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 40.0% 61.1%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 40.0% 44.4%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 16.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 0.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 84.6% 75.6%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 8.9% 15.2%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 6.5% 9.3%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 15:00 13:53
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,544.1 1,533.3
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.027 0.163
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
MarQuel Mederos 45.4% 3.20 31.3% +45.3%
Mason Jones 54.6% 1.37 73.0% -25.2%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake No bet recommended at the price we recorded.

Market Odds

Sportsbook MarQuel Mederos Mason Jones
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline +188 2.88 -333 1.30
DraftKings +220 3.20 -270 1.37
FanDuel +215 3.15 -294 1.34
BetMGM +240 3.40 -303 1.33
BetOnline +220 3.20 -263 1.38

Odds captured Aug 16, 2026, 6:02 AM

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