FightChoice Intelligence Report

Jamall Emmers
vs
Lerryan Douglas

Jamall Emmers vs Lerryan Douglas

https://fightchoice.app/events/jamall-emmers-vs-lerryan-douglas-prediction-2026-08-22

Featherweight

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Aug 22, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 06:02 UTC

Model Breakdown
Jamall Emmers Lerryan Douglas
Deep Learning Model α 16% weight 53.1% 46.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 54.9% 45.1%
Statistical Model δ 19% weight 38.1% 61.9%
Statistical Model β 22% weight 29.6% 70.4%
Statistical Model ε 20% weight 47.9% 52.1%
Ensemble 41.8% 58.2%
Predicted Winner
Lerryan Douglas
58.2%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 1m15s (11m15s total)
Chance the fight is still going at the end of each round
End of round
43% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Share This Intel Report Export as Image

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Jamall Emmers Lerryan Douglas
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 4, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac
Middleweight
JunYong Park Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m05s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
65.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
178s
Denis Tiuliulin
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
36.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 21, 2013
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
Welterweight
Stephen Thompson Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m27s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.5
Strike accuracy
59%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
76s
Chris Clements
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.5
Strike accuracy
39.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 28, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier
Light Heavyweight
Ovince Saint Preux Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m46s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
29.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
24.5s
Michal Oleksiejczuk
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.5
Strike accuracy
47.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
45s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 28, 2013
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann 2
Welterweight
Court McGee Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.3
Strike accuracy
28.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
12.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.3s
Robert Whittaker
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
26.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 15, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2
Women's Strawweight
Sam Hughes Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
37.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
87s
Stephanie Luciano
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.3
Strike accuracy
32.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
25s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 20, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
Bantamweight
Davey Grant
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32.7
Strike accuracy
35.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.3s
Adrian Yanez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33.3
Strike accuracy
39.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 12, 2007
UFC Fight Night: Stout vs Fisher
Welterweight
Forrest Petz Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
14.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Luigi Fioravanti
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
37.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 20, 2007
UFC 77: Hostile Territory
Welterweight
Joshua Burkman Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
50.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
23.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
50.3s
Forrest Petz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.7
Strike accuracy
47.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
72.3s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 16, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos Anjos
Featherweight
Ricardo Lamas
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
45.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Josh Emmett Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m33s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
26.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 25, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Flyweight
Steve Erceg
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
26.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
Ramazan Temirov Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m21s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
44.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 8, 2025
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
Lightweight
King Green
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
26.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Mauricio Ruffy Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m07s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 5, 2011
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
Middleweight
Anderson Silva Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m25s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
Vitor Belfort
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 29, 2009
UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira
Middleweight
Ed Herman
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.5
Strike accuracy
21.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Aaron Simpson Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m17s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.5
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
92.5s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 20, 2018
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
Featherweight
Shane Burgos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.7
Strike accuracy
47.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Calvin Kattar Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 0m32s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.3
Strike accuracy
43.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.3s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 26, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus
Heavyweight
Curtis Blaydes Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m17s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
47.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.5s
Chris Daukaus
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.5
Strike accuracy
34.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s

Export as Image

Tale of the Tape

Stat Jamall Emmers Lerryan Douglas
Career Record 22-8 14-5
Height 5' 10" 5' 9"
Weight 145 lbs. 145 lbs.
Reach 74" 72"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 37 31

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Jamall Emmers Lerryan Douglas
Per Round Average
Strikes 22.2 29
Strike accuracy 47.5% 60.4%
Takedowns 0.8 0
Takedown accuracy 53.3% 0%
Sub attempts 0.1 0
Control time 85.8s 5s
Knockdowns 0.16 2
Knockdowns absorbed 0.05 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 79.3% 66.7%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 2 4
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 29 6
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 56.6% 62.1%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 30.6% 10.3%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 12.8% 27.6%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 16.26 17
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.16 0
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.31 —
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.21 —
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 2.33 —
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 60.9% 100.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 39.1% 100.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 21.7% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 50.0% 50.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 80.3% 86.2%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 10.9% 6.9%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 8.8% 6.9%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 9:37 3:33
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,521.0 1,517.5
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.234 0.073
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Jamall Emmers 41.8% 3.95 25.3% +64.9%
Lerryan Douglas 58.2% 1.27 78.7% -26.0%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake No bet recommended at the price we recorded.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Jamall Emmers Lerryan Douglas
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline +235 3.35 -417 1.24
DraftKings +295 3.95 -370 1.27
FanDuel +290 3.90 -400 1.25
BetMGM +310 4.10 -400 1.25
BetOnline +316 4.16 -400 1.25

Odds captured Aug 16, 2026, 6:02 AM

More from UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast Gauge Young vs Stan Dorsainvil Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed Marcio Barbosa vs Ryan Kuse Terrance Chatman vs Anthony Wint

Put your own money-free bets on Jamall Emmers vs Lerryan Douglas

Create a free account to run any matchup through our AI ensemble of statistical models, track a fantasy bankroll, and bet the card. No card required.

Create your free account