FightChoice Intelligence Report

Reinier de Ridder
vs
Roman Dolidze

Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze

https://fightchoice.app/events/reinier-de-ridder-vs-roman-dolidze-prediction-2026-08-22

Light Heavyweight

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Aug 22, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 13, 2026, 06:07 UTC

Model Breakdown
Reinier de Ridder Roman Dolidze
Deep Learning Model α 16% weight 46.3% 53.7%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 42.2% 57.8%
Statistical Model δ 19% weight 71.5% 28.5%
Statistical Model β 22% weight 70.5% 29.5%
Statistical Model ε 20% weight 65.1% 34.9%
Ensemble 63.6% 36.4%
Predicted Winner
Reinier de Ridder
63.6%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)
Chance the fight is still going at the end of each round
End of round
60% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Reinier de Ridder Roman Dolidze
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 30, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot
Welterweight
Vicente Luque
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.5
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.5s
Joaquin Buckley Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m17s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.5
Strike accuracy
42%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
24.5s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 7, 2024
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
catch/open/unknown
Chris Weidman
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
67.5s
Eryk Anders Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m51s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31
Strike accuracy
60.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
132s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 11, 2023
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
Lightweight
Matt Frevola
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
55.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
25s
Benoit Saint Denis Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m31s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
19s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 2, 2019
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
Welterweight
Jorge Masvidal Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
37.3
Strike accuracy
62.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
138.7s
Nate Diaz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.3
Strike accuracy
41.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14.7s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 25, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
Lightweight
Kevin Lee Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m37s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
73.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
214s
Michael Chiesa
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 1, 2011
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
Lightweight
Rafaello Oliveira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
18.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
21.5s
Yves Edwards Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m44s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
38.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 13, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski
Lightweight
Piotr Hallmann
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.3
Strike accuracy
46%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
32.7s
Gleison Tibau Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
40.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
45.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
113.3s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 17, 2012
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
Welterweight
Martin Kampmann
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Johny Hendricks Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m46s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 5, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai
Light Heavyweight
Alonzo Menifield
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.5
Strike accuracy
47.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
18s
Ovince Saint Preux Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m07s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.5
Strike accuracy
41.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.5s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 15, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta
Lightweight
Charles Oliveira Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m15s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
47s
Jim Miller
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 13, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad
Women's Flyweight
Cortney Casey
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
42%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
JJ Aldrich Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
56.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
114.7s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 4, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
Lightweight
Diego Ferreira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
35.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
58s
Dustin Poirier Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m45s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
48%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
46s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 7, 2019
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
Middleweight
Omari Akhmedov Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
33.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
73s
Zak Cummings
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.7
Strike accuracy
24.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 19, 2013
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3
Heavyweight
Gabriel Gonzaga Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m33s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Shawn Jordan
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
28.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 6, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson
Lightweight
Yancy Medeiros
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
88s
Dustin Poirier Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m38s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
75%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Reinier de Ridder Roman Dolidze
UFC Record 4-2 9-5
Height 6' 4" 6' 2"
Weight 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach 78" 76"
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Age 35 38

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Reinier de Ridder Roman Dolidze
Per Round Average
Strikes 11.3 15.2
Strike accuracy 48.6% 41.6%
Takedowns 0.8 0.4
Takedown accuracy 29.2% 43.8%
Sub attempts 0.2 0.2
Control time 93.3s 74.6s
Knockdowns 0.11 0.11
Knockdowns absorbed 0.06 0.03
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 84.0% 64.3%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -2 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 25 14
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 59.6% 63.3%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 32.0% 14.5%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 8.4% 22.1%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 10.78 17.74
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.17 0.45
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.32 0.61
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.3 0.46
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.11 0.29
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. Yes No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 85.7% 55.6%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 19.0% 55.6%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 66.7% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 75.0% 20.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 75.9% 81.0%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 15.3% 6.1%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 8.9% 13.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 13:41 12:58
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,544.7 1,561.0
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.258 0.112
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Reinier de Ridder 63.6% 1.29 77.5% -17.9%
Roman Dolidze 36.4% 3.70 27.0% +34.5%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake No bet recommended at the price we recorded.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Reinier de Ridder Roman Dolidze
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -417 1.24 +235 3.35
DraftKings -345 1.29 +270 3.70
BetOnline -333 1.30 +270 3.70

Odds captured Aug 14, 2026, 6:02 PM

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