FightChoice Intelligence Report

Shanelle Dyer
vs
Elise Reed

Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed

https://fightchoice.app/events/shanelle-dyer-vs-elise-reed-prediction-2026-08-22

Women's Strawweight

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Aug 22, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC

Model Breakdown
Shanelle Dyer Elise Reed
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 51.3% 48.7%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 60.5% 39.5%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 60.8% 39.2%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 69.2% 30.8%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 64.7% 35.3%
Ensemble 66.6% 33.4%
Predicted Winner
Shanelle Dyer
66.6%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

62% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Shanelle Dyer 34.1% 21.3% 11.1% 66.6%
Elise Reed 17.1% 10.7% 5.6% 33.4%
281 historical bouts 51.2% 32.0% 16.7% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

51% Reached the judges
49% Ended early
32% KO/TKO 17% Submission 7:05 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Shanelle Dyer Elise Reed
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 12, 2009
UFC 107: Penn vs Sanchez
catch/open/unknown
Wilson Gouveia
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29
Strike accuracy
32.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Alan Belcher Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m03s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
37.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 22, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt
Bantamweight
Cody Garbrandt
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.6
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.6
Takedown accuracy
30%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
36.4s
Rob Font Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
35.2
Strike accuracy
48.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.4
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14.6s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 16, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller
Featherweight
Lucas Martins Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m08s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.7
Strike accuracy
37.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.7s
Alex White
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
26.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 16, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal
Lightweight
Marc Diakiese Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
59.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
89.3s
Joe Duffy
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.7s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 10, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez
Featherweight
Chan Sung Jung
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.2
Strike accuracy
40.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.6s
Yair Rodriguez Winner
Finish 5th Rnd, 4m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.8
Strike accuracy
43.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.8s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 22, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes
Middleweight
Bruno Silva Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m35s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
45.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Brad Tavares
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
23.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 13, 2019
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
Women's Flyweight
Poliana Botelho Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
56%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
137s
Lauren Mueller
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
40.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
58.3s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 2, 2011
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
Light Heavyweight
Ryan Bader
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
19%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
Tito Ortiz Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m56s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
37.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 5, 2012
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
Welterweight
Josh Neer
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
—
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20s
Justin Edwards Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m45s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
85.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 4, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy
Lightweight
Donald Cerrone Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.6
Strike accuracy
38.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.4s
Al Iaquinta
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
40.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 7, 2022
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
Welterweight
Danny Roberts
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
30.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s
Francisco Trinaldo Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.7
Strike accuracy
64.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
87s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 8, 2016
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
Middleweight
Michael Bisping Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.8
Strike accuracy
35.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.2s
Dan Henderson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.2
Strike accuracy
36.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20.8s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 18, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
Middleweight
Brendan Allen Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 0m38s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.7
Strike accuracy
74.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
159.3s
Paul Craig
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.3s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 17, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
Welterweight
Vicente Luque Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m54s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
54.3
Strike accuracy
67.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.3s
Bryan Barberena
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
56.3
Strike accuracy
47.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10.3s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 17, 2012
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
Middleweight
Alessio Sakara
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
70.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s
Patrick Cote Winner
Decision 1st Rnd, 1m26s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
42.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Shanelle Dyer Elise Reed
Career Record 7-1 8-5
Height 5' 6" 5' 3"
Weight 115 lbs. 115 lbs.
Reach 65" 63"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 25 33

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Shanelle Dyer Elise Reed
Per Round Average
Strikes 24.5 15.1
Strike accuracy 62.8% 53.2%
Takedowns 0.5 0.1
Takedown accuracy 100% 60%
Sub attempts 0 0
Control time 17s 22.6s
Knockdowns 0 0.05
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.09
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 60.0% 70.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 40.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 1 -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 5 20
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 44.9% 56.2%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 26.5% 23.1%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 28.6% 20.7%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 13 14.45
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0 1.05
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 1.19
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0.52
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 5.000
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 100.0% 50.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 100.0% 35.7%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 14.3%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 50.0% 100.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 71.4% 83.8%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 16.3% 12.0%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 12.2% 4.2%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 6:17 10:50
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,514.6 1,487.5
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.014 0.085
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Decline

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Shanelle Dyer 66.6% 1.12 89.3% -25.4%
Elise Reed 33.4% 6.75 14.8% +125.6%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake No bet recommended at the price we recorded.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Shanelle Dyer Elise Reed
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -1250 1.08 +480 5.80
DraftKings -833 1.12 +575 6.75
FanDuel -909 1.11 +610 7.10
BetMGM -909 1.11 +600 7.00
Bovada -909 1.11 +600 7.00
BetOnline -769 1.13 +534 6.34

Odds captured Aug 22, 2026, 12:03 AM

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