FightChoice Intelligence Report

Serghei Spivac
vs
Vitor Petrino

Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino

https://fightchoice.app/events/serghei-spivac-vs-vitor-petrino-prediction-2026-08-22

Heavyweight

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Aug 22, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC

Model Breakdown
Serghei Spivac Vitor Petrino
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 38.0% 62.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 60.0% 40.0%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 49.0% 51.0%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 42.2% 57.8%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 38.1% 61.9%
Ensemble 43.6% 56.4%
Predicted Winner
Vitor Petrino
56.4%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 3m45s (13m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

45% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Serghei Spivac 25.1% 12.7% 5.7% 43.6%
Vitor Petrino 32.5% 16.5% 7.4% 56.4%
281 historical bouts 57.7% 29.2% 13.2% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

58% Reached the judges
42% Ended early
29% KO/TKO 13% Submission 5:25 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Serghei Spivac Vitor Petrino
83% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 7, 2024
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
Welterweight
Randy Brown
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
54.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
35.3s
Bryan Battle Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
51.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
148.3s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 30, 2016
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
Bantamweight
TJ Dillashaw Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.7
Strike accuracy
59.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
83.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
137.7s
John Lineker
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
42.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 21, 2010
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
Heavyweight
Paul Buentello
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
10.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Cheick Kongo Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m16s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.7
Strike accuracy
56.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
169.7s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 22, 2022
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
Bantamweight
TJ Dillashaw
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
30.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.5s
Aljamain Sterling Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m44s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36
Strike accuracy
77.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.5
Takedown accuracy
62.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
213s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 8, 2018
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
Women's Strawweight
Claudia Gadelha
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
43.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
67s
Nina Nunes Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32
Strike accuracy
45.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 17, 2024
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
Middleweight
Robert Whittaker Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31.7
Strike accuracy
54.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Paulo Costa
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.3
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 6, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
Women's Strawweight
Ariane Carnelossi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
38.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Ketlen Souza Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m34s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
76.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 14, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov
Welterweight
Zak Ottow
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
37.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
156.5s
Sage Northcutt Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m13s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
64.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
47s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 6, 2010
UFC 109: Relentless
Light Heavyweight
Mark Coleman
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
47.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Randy Couture Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m09s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
65.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
109s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 16, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Kennedy
Middleweight
Michael Bisping
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
29.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.6s
Tim Kennedy Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.2
Strike accuracy
48.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
45.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
144.2s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 21, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr.
Middleweight
JunYong Park Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
41.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
133s
Ismail Naurdiev
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.3
Strike accuracy
49.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28.3s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 30, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot
Featherweight
Nate Landwehr Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m43s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
37
Strike accuracy
48.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
Jamall Emmers
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
39
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 26, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder
Middleweight
Marc-Andre Barriault
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
50.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
90s
Shara Magomedov Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31
Strike accuracy
65.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
19s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 15, 2014
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
Welterweight
Kelvin Gastelum Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.7
Strike accuracy
43.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
30s
Rick Story
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
27.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
46.7s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 6, 2014
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
Heavyweight
Brendan Schaub
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
38.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
49s
Travis Browne Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m50s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
67.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
101s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Serghei Spivac Vitor Petrino
UFC Record 9-6 7-2
Height 6' 3" 6' 2"
Weight 260 lbs. 265 lbs.
Reach 78" 77"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 31 28

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Serghei Spivac Vitor Petrino
Per Round Average
Strikes 15.5 13.4
Strike accuracy 47.8% 48.8%
Takedowns 1.1 0.8
Takedown accuracy 59.3% 46.2%
Sub attempts 0.1 0.2
Control time 85.3s 84.2s
Knockdowns 0 0.14
Knockdowns absorbed 0.07 0.09
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 60.0% 82.4%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 1 3
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 15 17
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 94.0% 67.3%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 3.6% 19.7%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 2.5% 12.9%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 18.31 11.95
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.14 0.23
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.56 0.75
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.32 0.79
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.23 0.87
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 66.7% 71.4%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 33.3% 57.1%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 33.3% 14.3%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 66.7% 66.7%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 61.4% 81.6%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 3.8% 4.1%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 34.8% 14.3%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 8:22 10:35
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,554.6 1,568.5
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.112 0.138
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak

Market Odds

Sportsbook Serghei Spivac Vitor Petrino
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline +116 2.16 -185 1.54

Odds captured Aug 22, 2026, 12:03 AM

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