FightChoice Intelligence Report

Marcio Barbosa
vs
Ryan Kuse

Marcio Barbosa vs Ryan Kuse

https://fightchoice.app/events/marcio-barbosa-vs-ryan-kuse-prediction-2026-08-22

Featherweight

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Aug 22, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 06:02 UTC

Model Breakdown
Marcio Barbosa Ryan Kuse
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight 54.0% 46.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 28% weight 61.4% 38.6%
Statistical Model β 27% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 25% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Ensemble 55.9% 44.1%
Predicted Winner
Marcio Barbosa
55.9%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 3m45s (8m45s total)
Chance the fight is still going at the end of each round
End of round
36% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Marcio Barbosa Ryan Kuse
54% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 22, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes
Heavyweight
Junior Tafa
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.3
Strike accuracy
36.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Mohammed Usman Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2.3
Strike accuracy
24.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
241s
51% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 4, 2025
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2
Middleweight
Ateba Gautier Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m41s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
Tre'ston Vines
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
50% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 3, 2007
UFC 67: All or Nothing
Middleweight
Scott Smith
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.3
Strike accuracy
37.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
57s
Patrick Cote Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
58.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
48.7s
49% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 23, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo
Light Heavyweight
Zhang Mingyang Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m25s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
Ozzy Diaz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
75%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
48% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 29, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
Welterweight
Trey Waters Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34.7
Strike accuracy
51.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
Josh Quinlan
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
39.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
12.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
18s
48% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 17, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum
Middleweight
Abdul Razak Alhassan
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
44.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
Jacob Malkoun Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
49.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
233.7s
47% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 18, 2025
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
Light Heavyweight
Bogdan Guskov Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m33s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.5
Strike accuracy
66.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
42s
Billy Elekana
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
71.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
110s
45% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 18, 2025
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen
Middleweight
Yousri Belgaroui Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 0m55s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34
Strike accuracy
73.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.3s
Azamat Bekoev
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
31.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
66s
45% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 1, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov
Middleweight
Nursulton Ruziboev Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m17s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Brunno Ferreira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
45% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 15, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva
Welterweight
Jack Della Maddalena Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.7
Strike accuracy
60.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
26.3s
Bassil Hafez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.7
Strike accuracy
25.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
15%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
136s
45% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 6, 2021
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
Featherweight
Bruno Souza
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
44.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15s
Melsik Baghdasaryan Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
60.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.3s
44% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 14, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Featherweight
Marwan Rahiki Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
45
Strike accuracy
54.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
47.5s
Harry Hardwick
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32.5
Strike accuracy
43.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
22s
43% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 18, 2020
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
Light Heavyweight
Aleksa Camur Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.7
Strike accuracy
48.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Justin Ledet
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
33.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
24.7s
43% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 22, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker
Lightweight
Jalin Turner Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m01s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.5
Strike accuracy
60.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
130.5s
Josh Culibao
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.5s
42% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 45%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 27, 2021
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
Light Heavyweight
Alonzo Menifield Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m11s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
100%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
67s
Fabio Cherant
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Marcio Barbosa Ryan Kuse
UFC Record 1-0 —
Height 5' 6" —
Weight 145 lbs. —
Reach 70" —
Stance Orthodox —
Age 28 —

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Marcio Barbosa Ryan Kuse
Per Round Average
Strikes 4 —
Strike accuracy 50% —
Takedowns 0 —
Takedown accuracy 0% —
Sub attempts 0 —
Control time 0s —
Knockdowns 1 —
Knockdowns absorbed 0 —
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 66.7% 50.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 50.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 3 1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 6 2
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 100.0% 0.0%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 0.0% 0.0%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 0.0% 0.0%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 5 0.000
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0 0.000
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 100.0% 0.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 100.0% 0.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 100.0% 0.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 100.0% 0.0%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% 0.0%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% 0.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 1:20 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,514.6 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.028 0.021
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Early

Market Odds

Sportsbook Marcio Barbosa Ryan Kuse
US Decimal US Decimal
BetOnline -909 1.11 +613 7.13

Odds captured Aug 16, 2026, 6:02 AM

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