FightChoice Intelligence Report

Kennedy Nzechukwu
vs
Shamil Gaziev

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev

https://fightchoice.app/events/kennedy-nzechukwu-vs-shamil-gaziev-prediction-2026-08-22

Heavyweight

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Aug 22, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC

Model Breakdown
Kennedy Nzechukwu Shamil Gaziev
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 36.3% 63.7%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 62.1% 37.9%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 55.8% 44.2%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 57.8% 42.2%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 64.7% 35.3%
Ensemble 57.9% 42.1%
Predicted Winner
Kennedy Nzechukwu
57.9%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
1st Round at 3m45s (3m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

25% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Kennedy Nzechukwu 30.5% 17.3% 10.1% 57.9%
Shamil Gaziev 22.2% 12.6% 7.3% 42.1%
281 historical bouts 52.7% 29.9% 17.4% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

53% Reached the judges
47% Ended early
30% KO/TKO 17% Submission 7:09 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Kennedy Nzechukwu Shamil Gaziev
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 12, 2022
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
Lightweight
Dustin Poirier Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
15.7s
Michael Chandler
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.3
Strike accuracy
43%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
113s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 2, 2016
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
Lightweight
Dustin Poirier Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
52.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
187.3s
Joe Duffy
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
37%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.7s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 26, 2013
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
Light Heavyweight
Ryan Bader Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m50s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
Vladimir Matyushenko
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 8, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski
Flyweight
Neil Seery
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
39.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
Kyoji Horiguchi Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
49.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
115.7s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 23, 2021
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
Women's Bantamweight
Julianna Pena Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m39s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
58.3s
Sara McMann
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
38.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
147s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 13, 2017
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
Featherweight
Yair Rodriguez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
38.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Frankie Edgar Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36
Strike accuracy
69.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
252.5s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 13, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad
Bantamweight
Jonathan Martinez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.5
Strike accuracy
40.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
12.5s
Davey Grant Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m03s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
43.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.5s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 30, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje
Lightweight
Desmond Green Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m52s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
78.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
Ross Pearson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 25, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Women's Bantamweight
Joselyne Edwards Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
46.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
47s
Norma Dumont
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
51%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
43s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 25, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick
Lightweight
Drew Dober Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
44.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
156s
Jon Tuck
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
44%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 8, 2012
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
Lightweight
Henry Martinez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
12.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.7s
Bernardo Magalhaes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
19.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 23, 2015
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
Flyweight
Joseph Benavidez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
57.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
183s
John Moraga
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
56%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.3s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 11, 2021
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Welterweight
Geoff Neal Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.3
Strike accuracy
52.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30.3
Strike accuracy
39.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.7s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 31, 2026
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2
Bantamweight
Sulangrangbo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
44.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.7s
Lawrence Lui Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.3
Strike accuracy
34.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
46.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
99.7s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 12, 2018
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
Middleweight
Thales Leites
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.7
Strike accuracy
64.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
153.7s
Jack Hermansson Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m10s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
62.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
42s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Kennedy Nzechukwu Shamil Gaziev
UFC Record 8-6-1 3-3
Height 6' 5" 6' 4"
Weight 236 lbs. 265 lbs.
Reach 83" 78"
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Age 34 36

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Kennedy Nzechukwu Shamil Gaziev
Per Round Average
Strikes 19.5 12.5
Strike accuracy 49.6% 45.4%
Takedowns 0.2 0.3
Takedown accuracy 45.5% 33.3%
Sub attempts 0.1 0
Control time 45s 103.5s
Knockdowns 0.09 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0.09 0.23
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 57.1% 80.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 40.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 14 26
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 81.5% 71.2%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 17.5% 27.0%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 1.0% 1.8%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 19.86 21.54
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.41 0.08
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.7 0.02
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.48 0.04
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.5 0.33
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. Yes No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 87.5% 90.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 75.0% 71.4%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 12.5% 19.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 66.7% 80.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 76.5% 71.8%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 13.2% 19.6%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 10.3% 8.6%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 8:28 9:02
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,523.9 1,505.5
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.269 0.226
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Kennedy Nzechukwu 57.9% 2.05 48.8% +18.7%
Shamil Gaziev 42.1% 1.80 55.6% -24.2%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake 9% of bankroll on Kennedy Nzechukwu at 2.05 (BetOnline) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Kennedy Nzechukwu Shamil Gaziev
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline +100 2.00 -159 1.63
DraftKings +105 2.05 -125 1.80
FanDuel +112 2.12 -132 1.76
BetMGM +110 2.10 -135 1.74
Bovada +112 2.12 -133 1.75
BetOnline +106 2.06 -127 1.79

Odds captured Aug 22, 2026, 6:02 AM

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