FightChoice Intelligence Report

Chris Padilla
vs
Nasrat Haqparast

Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast

https://fightchoice.app/events/chris-padilla-vs-nasrat-haqparast-prediction-2026-08-22

Lightweight

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Aug 22, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC

Model Breakdown
Chris Padilla Nasrat Haqparast
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 53.7% 46.3%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 49.0% 51.0%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 64.7% 35.3%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 57.8% 42.2%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 52.1% 47.9%
Ensemble 57.5% 42.5%
Predicted Winner
Chris Padilla
57.5%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

64% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 88 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 88 similar fights By submission *Based on 88 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Chris Padilla 22.9% 24.2% 10.5% 57.5%
Nasrat Haqparast 16.9% 17.8% 7.7% 42.5%
88 historical bouts 39.8% 42.0% 18.2% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

88 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 88 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

40% Reached the judges
60% Ended early
42% KO/TKO 18% Submission 4:11 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Chris Padilla Nasrat Haqparast
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 15, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen
Light Heavyweight
Tanner Boser
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
31.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Ion Cutelaba Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m05s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30
Strike accuracy
75%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 15, 2014
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
Welterweight
Jake Shields
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1.3
Strike accuracy
5.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Hector Lombard Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
48.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
149s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 26, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder
Welterweight
Muslim Salikhov Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m42s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Carlos Leal
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
55.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 10, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer
Middleweight
Robert Bryczek
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.7
Strike accuracy
24.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10s
Ihor Potieria Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.3
Strike accuracy
39.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
52.3s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 25, 2015
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
Women's Bantamweight
Alexis Davis Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m07s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
34.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
25.5s
Sarah Kaufman
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32.5
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
43.5s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 22, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders
Middleweight
Thales Leites Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.7s
Hector Lombard
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
57.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
30.7s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 1, 2009
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann
Lightweight
Tyson Griffin Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
32.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
57s
Rafael Dos Anjos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
19.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.7s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 24, 2009
UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun
Lightweight
Josh Neer
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
24.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s
Gleison Tibau Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.3
Strike accuracy
18.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3.7
Takedown accuracy
78.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
92.3s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 16, 2013
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
Welterweight
Rory MacDonald
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
34.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
61.7s
Robbie Lawler Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
43.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
47.3s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 26, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson
Welterweight
Li Jingliang
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.3
Strike accuracy
55.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
31.7s
Keita Nakamura Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m17s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
46%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
86.7s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 19, 2009
UFC 103: Franklin vs Belfort
Middleweight
Tomasz Drwal Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m03s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.5
Strike accuracy
42.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
76.5s
Drew McFedries
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.5
Strike accuracy
37%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 3, 2018
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
Middleweight
CB Dollaway Winner
Decision 1st Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
68.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Hector Lombard
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
57.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 6, 2021
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
Women's Strawweight
Livinha Souza
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
14.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Amanda Lemos Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m39s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29
Strike accuracy
63%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
73s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 28, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis
Light Heavyweight
Ion Cutelaba Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
37.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
39.7s
Ivan Erslan
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
56.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
106.3s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 10, 2022
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
Light Heavyweight
Johnny Walker Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m37s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
100%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
3
Control time (Per Rnd)
130s
Ion Cutelaba
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
122s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Chris Padilla Nasrat Haqparast
UFC Record 4-0-1 10-5
Height 5' 9" 5' 10"
Weight 155 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach 74" 72"
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Age 30 31

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Chris Padilla Nasrat Haqparast
Per Round Average
Strikes 30 29.5
Strike accuracy 54.2% 45.7%
Takedowns 0.4 0.1
Takedown accuracy 28.6% 20%
Sub attempts 0.1 0
Control time 57.4s 10.9s
Knockdowns 0 0.18
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.05
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 66.7% 66.7%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 100.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 5 -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 12 15
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 51.9% 74.6%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 13.7% 21.8%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 34.4% 3.7%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 18.5 27.79
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.12 0.18
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.23 1.47
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.44 1.17
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0 5.000
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No Yes
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 75.0% 20.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 62.5% 20.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 12.5% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 25.0% 40.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 81.4% 89.6%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 9.8% 5.5%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 8.7% 4.8%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 9:34 11:44
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,559.1 1,572.7
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.082 0.144
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Chris Padilla 57.5% 1.87 53.5% +7.6%
Nasrat Haqparast 42.5% 1.95 51.3% -17.2%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake 8% of bankroll on Chris Padilla at 2.00 (DraftKings) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Chris Padilla Nasrat Haqparast
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -128 1.78 -122 1.82
DraftKings -115 1.87 -105 1.95
FanDuel -108 1.93 -108 1.93
BetMGM -110 1.91 -110 1.91
Bovada -115 1.87 -105 1.95
BetOnline -123 1.81 +104 2.04

Odds captured Aug 22, 2026, 12:03 AM

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