FightChoice Intelligence Report

Carli Judice
vs
Jeisla Chaves

Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves

https://fightchoice.app/events/carli-judice-vs-jeisla-chaves-prediction-2026-08-22

Women's Flyweight

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Aug 22, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC

Outdated predictions due to model or data updates

Model Breakdown
Carli Judice Jeisla Chaves
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 52.8% 47.2%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 59.5% 40.5%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 42.1% 57.9%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 60.5% 39.5%
Ensemble 55.2% 44.8%
Predicted Winner
Carli Judice
55.2%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

69% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 169 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 169 similar fights By submission *Based on 169 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Carli Judice 28.4% 19.6% 7.2% 55.2%
Jeisla Chaves 23.1% 15.9% 5.8% 44.8%
169 historical bouts 51.5% 35.5% 13.0% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

169 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 169 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

51% Reached the judges
49% Ended early
36% KO/TKO 13% Submission 4:42 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Carli Judice Jeisla Chaves
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 28, 2015
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
Welterweight
Alan Jouban Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m19s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
48%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Richard Walsh
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 23, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang
Middleweight
Kyle Daukaus Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m43s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
62.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
Michel Pereira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 22, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson
Flyweight
Joseph Benavidez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31.3
Strike accuracy
47.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
49.3s
Dustin Ortiz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
24.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
22.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14.3s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 28, 2015
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
Lightweight
Tony Ferguson Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m37s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
28.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
46s
Gleison Tibau
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
10%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 14, 2013
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2
Flyweight
Joseph Benavidez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
14.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Demetrious Johnson Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m08s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 5, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos
Welterweight
Daniel Rodriguez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
61.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
25.3s
Neil Magny Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m33s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
52.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
71.4%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
82.7s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 2, 2017
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
Lightweight
David Teymur Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.3
Strike accuracy
38%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16.3s
Drakkar Klose
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
39%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 23, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis
Heavyweight
Justin Willis
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0.7
Strike accuracy
22.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Curtis Blaydes Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.3
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
63.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
234.7s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 5, 2012
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
Lightweight
Michael Johnson Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m06s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.5
Strike accuracy
47.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.5s
Danny Castillo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.5
Strike accuracy
48.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
121s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 28, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze
Middleweight
Sam Alvey
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.7
Strike accuracy
55.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
38s
Wellington Turman Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
58%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
22.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
58s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 15, 2025
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev
Featherweight
Chepe Mariscal
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2.3
Strike accuracy
36.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16s
Pat Sabatini Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
41.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
58.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
212.3s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 29, 2010
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
Light Heavyweight
Quinton Jackson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.7
Strike accuracy
36.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
18.7s
Rashad Evans Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.7
Strike accuracy
55.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
154.3s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 28, 2012
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
Lightweight
Evan Dunham Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34
Strike accuracy
70.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
146.5s
Nik Lentz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.5
Strike accuracy
51.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
29s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 19, 2015
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2
Lightweight
Donald Cerrone
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
57.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Rafael Dos Anjos Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m06s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
59.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 7, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green
Women's Flyweight
JJ Aldrich Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.7
Strike accuracy
48.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.3s
Montana De La Rosa
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.3
Strike accuracy
32.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Carli Judice Jeisla Chaves
Career Record 6-2 7-0
Height 5' 7" 5' 6"
Weight 125 lbs. 125 lbs.
Reach 68" 68"
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Age 27 29

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Carli Judice Jeisla Chaves
Per Round Average
Strikes 37.4 21.3
Strike accuracy 48.2% 64.6%
Takedowns 0.2 1
Takedown accuracy 50% 50%
Sub attempts 0 0.3
Control time 21.1s 89.7s
Knockdowns 0.20 0
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 75.0% 100.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 100.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 3 2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 8 2
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 69.5% 54.7%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 24.3% 31.2%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 6.1% 14.1%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 20.1 20.67
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.5 0.67
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.95 —
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.63 —
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.000 —
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. Yes No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 83.3% 0.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 83.3% 0.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 0.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 89.6% 56.2%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 8.8% 23.4%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 1.6% 20.3%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 10:48 15:00
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,529.8 1,515.2
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.043 0.016
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Early

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Carli Judice 55.2% 1.17 85.5% -35.5%
Jeisla Chaves 44.8% 5.25 19.0% +135.4%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake No bet recommended at the price we recorded.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Carli Judice Jeisla Chaves
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -769 1.13 +360 4.60
DraftKings -588 1.17 +425 5.25
FanDuel -588 1.17 +410 5.10
BetMGM -588 1.17 +425 5.25
Bovada -588 1.17 +450 5.50
BetOnline -588 1.17 +425 5.25

Odds captured Aug 22, 2026, 12:03 AM

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