FightChoice Intelligence Report

Anthony Hernandez
vs
Gregory Rodrigues

Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues

https://fightchoice.app/events/anthony-hernandez-vs-gregory-rodrigues-prediction-2026-08-22

Middleweight

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Aug 22, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC

Model Breakdown
Anthony Hernandez Gregory Rodrigues
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 42.0% 58.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 47.5% 52.5%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 54.8% 45.2%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 69.8% 30.2%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 66.6% 33.4%
Ensemble 58.9% 41.1%
Predicted Winner
Anthony Hernandez
58.9%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 1m15s (11m15s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

20% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 91 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 91 similar fights By submission *Based on 91 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Anthony Hernandez 29.8% 15.5% 13.6% 58.9%
Gregory Rodrigues 20.8% 10.8% 9.5% 41.1%
91 historical bouts 50.5% 26.4% 23.1% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

91 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 91 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

51% Reached the judges
49% Ended early
26% KO/TKO 23% Submission 6:11 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Anthony Hernandez Gregory Rodrigues
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 21, 2013
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
Lightweight
Renee Forte
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
25.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
John Makdessi Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m01s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
51.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 20, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
catch/open/unknown
Loopy Godinez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
44
Strike accuracy
53.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.3s
Emily Ducote
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
37.3
Strike accuracy
41.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.7s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 11, 2022
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
Welterweight
Jake Matthews Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m24s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.5
Strike accuracy
52.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Andre Fialho
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
35.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 21, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum
Lightweight
Roosevelt Roberts
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
32.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
34.7s
Ignacio Bahamondes Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m55s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
35
Strike accuracy
46.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
32.7s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 14, 2012
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
Lightweight
Thiago Tavares Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
39.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
18.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
47.3s
Sam Stout
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
26.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 6, 2013
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
Lightweight
Rafaello Oliveira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.5
Strike accuracy
45.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Edson Barboza Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m44s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.5
Strike accuracy
55.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 8, 2012
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
Lightweight
Ramsey Nijem Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
41.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
157.7s
Joe Proctor
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
30.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
48.7s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 20, 2013
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez
Bantamweight
TJ Dillashaw Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m22s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
47.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
62s
Hugo Viana
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
32.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 25, 2013
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
Featherweight
Dennis Bermudez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.3
Strike accuracy
32.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
44.4%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
69.7s
Max Holloway
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
38.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 2, 2011
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
Lightweight
Matt Wiman
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
35.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
31.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
151s
Dennis Siver Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.3
Strike accuracy
27.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
29.7s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 31, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi
Middleweight
Luke Barnatt
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
23.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9.3s
Sean Strickland Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
29.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.7s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 28, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira
Bantamweight
Damian Stasiak
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
29.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.3s
Pedro Munhoz Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.7
Strike accuracy
43%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
30%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
49.3s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 7, 2017
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
Lightweight
Kevin Lee
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
96.3s
Tony Ferguson Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m02s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
52.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 7, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3
Featherweight
Chas Skelly Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m56s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.5
Strike accuracy
38.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
82.5s
Edimilson Souza
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.5
Strike accuracy
54.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
63.5s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 28, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze
Welterweight
Kevin Lee
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
35%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
71.3s
Daniel Rodriguez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
40
Strike accuracy
57.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Anthony Hernandez Gregory Rodrigues
UFC Record 9-3 10-3
Height 6' 0" 6' 3"
Weight 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach 75" 75"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 32 34

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Anthony Hernandez Gregory Rodrigues
Per Round Average
Strikes 18.8 22.9
Strike accuracy 60.7% 51.5%
Takedowns 1.6 0.5
Takedown accuracy 48.2% 35.7%
Sub attempts 0.5 0.1
Control time 130.5s 46.6s
Knockdowns 0 0.29
Knockdowns absorbed 0.06 0.11
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 75.0% 78.3%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 3
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 12 23
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 80.3% 73.7%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 12.3% 21.3%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 7.4% 5.0%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 12.88 19.61
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.21 0.11
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.25 0.36
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.04 0.37
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.45 0.6
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 77.8% 77.8%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 22.2% 55.6%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 55.6% 22.2%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 100.0% 60.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 49.5% 84.0%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 11.6% 10.3%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 38.9% 5.8%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 11:25 8:57
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,600.5 1,604.7
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.211 0.209
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Anthony Hernandez 58.9% 1.44 69.4% -15.2%
Gregory Rodrigues 41.1% 2.85 35.1% +17.2%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake 6% of bankroll on Anthony Hernandez at 1.67 (BetOnline) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Anthony Hernandez Gregory Rodrigues
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -227 1.44 +140 2.40
DraftKings -227 1.44 +185 2.85
FanDuel -189 1.53 +152 2.52
BetMGM -200 1.50 +165 2.65
Bovada -196 1.51 +168 2.68
BetOnline -217 1.46 +185 2.85

Odds captured Aug 22, 2026, 12:03 AM

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