FightChoice Intelligence Report
Mauricio Ruffy vs Michael Chandler
https://fightchoice.app/events/mauricio-ruffy-vs-michael-chandler-prediction-2026-06-15
Lightweight
UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje · Jun 15, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
Model Breakdown
Mauricio Ruffy
Michael Chandler
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight
62.9%
37.1%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight
60.1%
39.9%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight
94.4%
5.6%
Statistical Model β 20% weight
62.6%
37.4%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight
64.9%
35.1%
Ensemble
80.0%
20.0%
Predicted Winner
Mauricio Ruffy
80.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 1m31s (6m31s total)
Fighter Intel
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Mauricio Ruffy | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Career Record | 14-3 | 23-11 |
| Height | 5' 11" | 5' 8" |
| Weight | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach | 75" | 71" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Age | 30 | 40 |
Records are official career records, all promotions included.
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Mauricio Ruffy | Michael Chandler | UFC AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | |||
| Strikes | 16.3 | 15.9 | 13.2 |
| Strike accuracy | 56.5% | 50.5% | 43.9% |
| Takedowns | 0 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Takedown accuracy | 0% | 36% | 32.9% |
| Sub attempts | 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Control time | 11s | 46.6s | 49.1s |
| Knockdowns | 0.55 | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0.09 | 0.25 | 0.13 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | |||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 86.7% | 70.4% | 45.6% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 60.0% | 20.0% | 37.5% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | -1 | -4 | -2 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 15 | 27 | — |
| head strike share | 81.6% | 66.7% | — |
| body strike share | 7.3% | 23.0% | — |
| leg strike share | 11.2% | 10.4% | — |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 15.64 | 19.65 | 15.22 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.36 | 0.35 | 0.4 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.24 | 0.4 | 0.52 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.64 | 0.26 | 0.56 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.000 | 0.14 | 0.42 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | Yes | — |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No | — |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No | — |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 92.3% | 78.9% | 46.3% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 92.3% | 52.6% | 27.7% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 0.0% | 26.3% | 18.6% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 100.0% | 75.0% | 52.3% |
| distance strike share | 83.2% | 73.9% | — |
| clinch strike share | 3.9% | 1.9% | — |
| ground strike share | 12.8% | 24.2% | — |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 6:57 | 10:20 | — |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,549.2 | 1,475.5 | 1500 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.161 | 0.139 | 0.078 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Decline | Decline | — |
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