FightChoice Intelligence Report
Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane
https://fightchoice.app/events/alex-pereira-vs-ciryl-gane-prediction-2026-06-15
Heavyweight
UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje · Jun 15, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
Model Breakdown
Alex Pereira
Ciryl Gane
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight
31.9%
68.1%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight
56.0%
44.0%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight
3.9%
96.1%
Statistical Model β 20% weight
44.5%
55.5%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight
35.9%
64.1%
Ensemble
20.0%
80.0%
Predicted Winner
Ciryl Gane
80.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 2m00s (12m00s total)
Fighter Intel
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Alex Pereira | Ciryl Gane |
|---|---|---|
| UFC Record | 10-3 | 11-2-1 |
| Height | 6' 4" | 6' 4" |
| Weight | 205 lbs. | 245 lbs. |
| Reach | 79" | 81" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Age | 39 | 36 |
Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Alex Pereira | Ciryl Gane | UFC AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | |||
| Strikes | 21.1 | 25.2 | 13.2 |
| Strike accuracy | 61.4% | 61.7% | 43.9% |
| Takedowns | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Takedown accuracy | 50% | 23.5% | 32.9% |
| Sub attempts | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Control time | 4.8s | 25s | 49.1s |
| Knockdowns | 0.21 | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | |||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 76.6% | 84.6% | 45.6% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 60.0% | 80.0% | 37.5% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | -1 | 3 | -2 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 47 | 13 | — |
| head strike share | 46.8% | 45.1% | — |
| body strike share | 25.8% | 26.4% | — |
| leg strike share | 27.4% | 28.4% | — |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 15.7 | 10.34 | 15.22 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.27 | 0.24 | 0.4 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.35 | 0.24 | 0.52 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.23 | 0.28 | 0.56 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0 | 1.5 | 0.42 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | Yes | — |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No | — |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No | — |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 83.3% | 63.6% | 46.3% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 66.7% | 45.5% | 27.7% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 16.7% | 18.2% | 18.6% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 63.6% | 50.0% | 52.3% |
| distance strike share | 81.2% | 88.5% | — |
| clinch strike share | 10.3% | 7.1% | — |
| ground strike share | 8.5% | 4.4% | — |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 10:42 | 13:39 | — |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,624.7 | 1,652.5 | 1500 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.631 | 0.277 | 0.078 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Decline | Peak | — |
Market Intel
Betting Edge
Recommended stake
37%
of bankroll
on Ciryl Gane at 1.91 (research)
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Alex Pereira
Ciryl Gane
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