FightChoice Intelligence Report

Diego Lopes
vs
Steve Garcia

Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia

https://fightchoice.app/events/diego-lopes-vs-steve-garcia-prediction-2026-06-15

Featherweight

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje · Jun 15, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

Model Breakdown
Diego Lopes Steve Garcia
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 65.1% 34.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 54.0% 46.0%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 45.7% 54.3%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 54.9% 45.1%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 40.8% 59.2%
Ensemble 61.4% 38.6%
Predicted Winner
Diego Lopes
61.4%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 2m47s (7m47s total)
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Tale of the Tape

Stat Diego Lopes Steve Garcia
Career Record 28-8 18-6
Height 5' 11" 6' 0"
Weight 145 lbs. 145 lbs.
Reach 72" 75"
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Age 31 34

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Diego Lopes Steve Garcia
Per Round Average
Strikes 17.8 17.8
Strike accuracy 47% 47.1%
Takedowns 0.3 0.2
Takedown accuracy 46.7% 57.1%
Sub attempts 0.3 0.1
Control time 29.5s 32.7s
Knockdowns 0.23 0.42
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.32
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 80.0% 79.2%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 1 -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 30 24
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 72.3% 74.9%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 12.1% 14.7%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 15.6% 10.3%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 21.08 7.21
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.31 0.16
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.41 0.17
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.78 0.14
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.4 0
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No Yes
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 87.5% 84.2%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 41.7% 84.2%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 45.8% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 33.3% 60.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 69.3% 69.3%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 7.4% 3.5%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 23.4% 27.1%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 11:43 6:11
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,586.1 1,575.2
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.288 0.227
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak

Betting Edge

Recommended stake 12% of bankroll on Diego Lopes at 1.74 (research) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

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