FightChoice Intelligence Report

Arnold Allen
vs
Melquizael Costa

Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa

https://fightchoice.app/events/arnold-allen-vs-melquizael-costa-prediction-2026-05-16

Featherweight

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · May 16, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

Model Breakdown
Arnold Allen Melquizael Costa
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 52.3% 47.7%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 33.8% 66.2%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 61.8% 38.2%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 40.5% 59.5%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 47.7% 52.3%
Ensemble 39.5% 60.5%
Predicted Winner
Melquizael Costa
60.5%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 1m16s (11m16s total)
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Tale of the Tape

Stat Arnold Allen Melquizael Costa
UFC Record 12-3 7-3
Height 5' 8" 5' 10"
Weight 145 lbs. 145 lbs.
Reach 70" 71"
Stance Southpaw Southpaw
Age 32 29

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Arnold Allen Melquizael Costa
Per Round Average
Strikes 16.6 19.3
Strike accuracy 44% 47%
Takedowns 0.4 0.5
Takedown accuracy 60% 35.5%
Sub attempts 0.1 0.3
Control time 41.8s 45.1s
Knockdowns 0.09 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.08
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 80.0% 77.4%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 1 -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 15 31
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 73.5% 46.8%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 18.0% 29.9%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 8.5% 23.4%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 14.87 14.29
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.46 1.08
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.59 0.44
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.61 0.94
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.14 1.33
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. Yes Yes
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 33.3% 66.7%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 16.7% 33.3%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 16.7% 33.3%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 57.1%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 89.0% 82.7%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 3.9% 9.1%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 7.1% 8.2%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 14:28 10:46
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,621.3 1,569.6
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.124 0.209
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak

Betting Edge

Recommended stake 12% of bankroll on Melquizael Costa at 2.10 (research) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

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