FightChoice Intelligence Report
Alice Ardelean vs Polyana Viana
https://fightchoice.app/events/alice-ardelean-vs-polyana-viana-prediction-2026-05-16
Women's Strawweight
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · May 16, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
Model Breakdown
Alice Ardelean
Polyana Viana
Deep Learning Model α 20% weight
44.4%
55.6%
Deep Learning Model ξ 22% weight
53.5%
46.5%
Statistical Model δ 20% weight
62.4%
37.6%
Statistical Model β 20% weight
57.7%
42.3%
Statistical Model ε 18% weight
53.3%
46.7%
Ensemble
66.7%
33.3%
Predicted Winner
Alice Ardelean
66.7%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 0m50s (10m50s total)
Fighter Intel
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Alice Ardelean | Polyana Viana |
|---|---|---|
| UFC Record | 3-2 | 4-8 |
| Height | 5' 3" | 5' 5" |
| Weight | 115 lbs. | 115 lbs. |
| Reach | 62" | 67" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Age | 34 | 34 |
Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Alice Ardelean | Polyana Viana | UFC AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | |||
| Strikes | 34.8 | 11.5 | 13.2 |
| Strike accuracy | 46.2% | 40.8% | 43.9% |
| Takedowns | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Takedown accuracy | 50% | 33.3% | 32.9% |
| Sub attempts | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Control time | 50.9s | 18.1s | 49.1s |
| Knockdowns | 0 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0 | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | |||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 70.0% | 33.3% | 45.6% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 60.0% | 20.0% | 37.5% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | 3 | -4 | -2 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 20 | 12 | — |
| head strike share | 70.0% | 47.2% | — |
| body strike share | 17.7% | 31.3% | — |
| leg strike share | 12.3% | 21.4% | — |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 24.71 | 11.14 | 15.22 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.14 | 0.64 | 0.4 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 1.22 | 0.5 | 0.52 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 1.26 | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 1 | 0 | 0.42 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | Yes | — |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No | — |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No | — |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 71.4% | 100.0% | 46.3% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 28.6% | 25.0% | 27.7% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 42.9% | 75.0% | 18.6% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 16.7% | 62.5% | 52.3% |
| distance strike share | 97.1% | 80.6% | — |
| clinch strike share | 2.1% | 9.1% | — |
| ground strike share | 0.8% | 10.3% | — |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 13:55 | 7:26 | — |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,512.7 | 1,443.4 | 1500 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.077 | 0.022 | 0.078 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Peak | Decline | — |
Market Intel
Betting Edge
Recommended stake
8%
of bankroll
on Alice Ardelean at 1.51 (research)
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Alice Ardelean
Polyana Viana
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