FightChoice Intelligence Report

Reinier de Ridder
vs
Roman Dolidze

Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze

https://fightchoice.app/events/reinier-de-ridder-vs-roman-dolidze-prediction-2026-08-22

Light Heavyweight

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Aug 22, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC

Model Breakdown
Reinier de Ridder Roman Dolidze
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 45.9% 54.1%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 42.2% 57.8%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 65.1% 34.9%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 75.7% 24.3%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 63.3% 36.7%
Ensemble 61.7% 38.3%
Predicted Winner
Reinier de Ridder
61.7%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

60% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Reinier de Ridder 34.3% 20.4% 7.0% 61.7%
Roman Dolidze 21.3% 12.7% 4.4% 38.3%
281 historical bouts 55.5% 33.1% 11.4% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

56% Reached the judges
44% Ended early
33% KO/TKO 11% Submission 5:28 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Reinier de Ridder Roman Dolidze
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 14, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos Anjos
Welterweight
Khaos Williams Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m30s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Abdul Razak Alhassan
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
100%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 29, 2012
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
Welterweight
John Hathaway Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
30.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
83.3s
John Maguire
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.3
Strike accuracy
31.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
34.3s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 2, 2011
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
Middleweight
Wanderlei Silva
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
37.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Chris Leben Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m27s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
90%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 8, 2020
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
Women's Flyweight
Lauren Murphy Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.7
Strike accuracy
40.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
50.3s
Andrea Lee
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34.7
Strike accuracy
39%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
12.3s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 4, 2017
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
Heavyweight
Mark Hunt
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
41.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Alistair Overeem Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m44s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
78.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
71s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 3, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo
Welterweight
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
44.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
12.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14.7s
Daniel Rodriguez Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m12s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
39.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.7s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 26, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie
Featherweight
Giga Chikadze Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.7
Strike accuracy
46.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Alex Caceres
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.7
Strike accuracy
36.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 1, 2017
The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale
Middleweight
Eric Spicely
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.5
Strike accuracy
54.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
110.5s
Gerald Meerschaert Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m18s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
42.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10.5s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 6, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov
Lightweight
Diego Ferreira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
44.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
19.3s
Beneil Dariush Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.7
Strike accuracy
53.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
147.7s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 15, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo
Middleweight
Jacob Malkoun Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.7
Strike accuracy
50.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3
Takedown accuracy
69.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
152.3s
Nick Maximov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.3
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.3s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 16, 2013
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
Bantamweight
Edwin Figueroa
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
21.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Erik Perez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
46.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
87.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
171.3s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 11, 2023
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski
Featherweight
Josh Culibao Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m02s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
35.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
Melsik Baghdasaryan
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
59.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 22, 2012
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
Middleweight
Michael Bisping Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.3
Strike accuracy
45.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
30.8%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
90.3s
Brian Stann
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
40.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
22.3s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 15, 2012
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
Heavyweight
Pat Barry Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m26s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.5
Strike accuracy
73.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10s
Shane del Rosario
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
56%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
98.5s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 8, 2020
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
Bantamweight
Andre Ewell Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.7
Strike accuracy
45.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
Jonathan Martinez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
46.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
30s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Reinier de Ridder Roman Dolidze
UFC Record 4-2 9-5
Height 6' 4" 6' 2"
Weight 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach 78" 76"
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Age 35 38

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Reinier de Ridder Roman Dolidze
Per Round Average
Strikes 11.3 15.2
Strike accuracy 48.6% 41.6%
Takedowns 0.8 0.4
Takedown accuracy 29.2% 43.8%
Sub attempts 0.2 0.2
Control time 93.3s 74.6s
Knockdowns 0.11 0.11
Knockdowns absorbed 0.06 0.03
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 84.0% 64.3%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -2 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 25 14
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 59.6% 63.3%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 32.0% 14.5%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 8.4% 22.1%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 10.78 17.74
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.17 0.45
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.32 0.61
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.3 0.46
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.11 0.29
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. Yes No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 85.7% 55.6%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 19.0% 55.6%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 66.7% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 75.0% 20.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 75.9% 81.0%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 15.3% 6.1%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 8.9% 13.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 13:41 12:58
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,544.7 1,561.0
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.258 0.112
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Reinier de Ridder 61.7% 1.26 79.4% -22.2%
Roman Dolidze 38.3% 4.00 25.0% +53.1%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake No bet recommended at the price we recorded.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Reinier de Ridder Roman Dolidze
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -500 1.20 +275 3.75
DraftKings -385 1.26 +300 4.00
FanDuel -435 1.23 +320 4.20
BetMGM -400 1.25 +310 4.10
Bovada -385 1.26 +310 4.10
BetOnline -400 1.25 +300 4.00

Odds captured Aug 22, 2026, 12:03 AM

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