FightChoice Intelligence Report

Jamall Emmers
vs
Lerryan Douglas

Jamall Emmers vs Lerryan Douglas

https://fightchoice.app/events/jamall-emmers-vs-lerryan-douglas-prediction-2026-08-22

Featherweight

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Aug 22, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC

Model Breakdown
Jamall Emmers Lerryan Douglas
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 47.5% 52.5%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 54.9% 45.1%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 49.0% 51.0%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 42.2% 57.8%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 43.1% 56.9%
Ensemble 46.4% 53.6%
Predicted Winner
Lerryan Douglas
53.6%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 3m45s (8m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

42% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 131 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 131 similar fights By submission *Based on 131 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Jamall Emmers 21.2% 16.3% 8.8% 46.4%
Lerryan Douglas 24.6% 18.8% 10.2% 53.6%
131 historical bouts 45.8% 35.1% 19.1% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

131 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 131 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

46% Reached the judges
54% Ended early
35% KO/TKO 19% Submission 4:40 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Jamall Emmers Lerryan Douglas
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 28, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens
Middleweight
Antonio Braga Neto
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
37.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
158s
Clint Hester Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
51.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
48.7s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 11, 2017
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
Middleweight
Derek Brunson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
53.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
76s
Anderson Silva Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.3
Strike accuracy
55.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 20, 2010
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
Welterweight
Chris Lytle Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m41s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
14.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Brian Foster
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
22.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 26, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder
Heavyweight
Marcus Buchecha
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
9.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
101.7s
Martin Buday Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.7
Strike accuracy
47.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
57s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 26, 2024
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
Middleweight
Abus Magomedov Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m14s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
44.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
72s
Brunno Ferreira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.7
Strike accuracy
40.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.3s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 2, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker
Bantamweight
Alejandro Perez Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m13s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.5
Strike accuracy
41.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
37s
Johnny Eduardo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.5
Strike accuracy
52.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
37s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 6, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2
Women's Bantamweight
Norma Dumont Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.7
Strike accuracy
37.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
201.3s
Germaine de Randamie
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.3
Strike accuracy
48.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
47s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 24, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2
Flyweight
Denys Bondar
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.5
Strike accuracy
65.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
86s
Ronaldo Rodriguez Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.5
Strike accuracy
44.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
88s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 30, 2016
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
Welterweight
Mike Pyle
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
20.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Alex Garcia Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m34s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
48.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
88s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 20, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
Welterweight
Kiichi Kunimoto Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
39.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
10%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
122s
Richard Walsh
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.7
Strike accuracy
56.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
66.3s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 12, 2014
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale
Featherweight
Charles Oliveira Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.3
Strike accuracy
64.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
107.7s
Jeremy Stephens
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
60.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
126.3s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 20, 2022
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
Lightweight
Jared Gordon Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
38.7
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
78.3s
Leonardo Santos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
18s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 28, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze
Women's Flyweight
Vanessa Demopoulos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
43.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
37.7s
JJ Aldrich Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31
Strike accuracy
69.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
86.3s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 11, 2020
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
Heavyweight
Marcin Tybura Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
188.3s
Maxim Grishin
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
56.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.3s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 2, 2017
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
Lightweight
Charles Oliveira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
85.5s
Paul Felder Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m06s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.5
Strike accuracy
67.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
146s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Jamall Emmers Lerryan Douglas
Career Record 22-8 14-5
Height 5' 10" 5' 9"
Weight 145 lbs. 145 lbs.
Reach 74" 72"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 37 31

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Jamall Emmers Lerryan Douglas
Per Round Average
Strikes 22.2 29
Strike accuracy 47.5% 60.4%
Takedowns 0.8 0
Takedown accuracy 53.3% 0%
Sub attempts 0.1 0
Control time 85.8s 5s
Knockdowns 0.16 2
Knockdowns absorbed 0.05 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 79.3% 66.7%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 2 4
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 29 6
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 56.6% 62.1%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 30.6% 10.3%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 12.8% 27.6%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 16.26 17
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.16 0
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.31 —
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.21 —
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 2.33 —
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 60.9% 100.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 39.1% 100.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 21.7% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 50.0% 50.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 80.3% 86.2%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 10.9% 6.9%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 8.8% 6.9%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 9:37 3:33
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,521.0 1,517.5
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.234 0.073
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Jamall Emmers 46.4% 4.10 24.4% +90.1%
Lerryan Douglas 53.6% 1.25 80.0% -33.0%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake No bet recommended at the price we recorded.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Jamall Emmers Lerryan Douglas
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline +260 3.60 -500 1.20
DraftKings +310 4.10 -400 1.25
FanDuel +340 4.40 -435 1.23
BetMGM +310 4.10 -400 1.25
Bovada +310 4.10 -385 1.26
BetOnline +300 4.00 -400 1.25

Odds captured Aug 22, 2026, 12:03 AM

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