FightChoice Intelligence Report
Steve Erceg vs Ramazan Temirov
https://fightchoice.app/events/steve-erceg-vs-ramazan-temirov-prediction-2026-07-25
Flyweight
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Jul 25, 2026
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Jul 23, 2026, 22:37 UTC
Model Breakdown
Steve Erceg
Ramazan Temirov
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight
52.1%
47.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight
49.0%
51.0%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight
41.9%
58.1%
Statistical Model β 21% weight
46.9%
53.1%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight
56.2%
43.8%
Ensemble
51.0%
49.0%
Predicted Winner
Steve Erceg
51.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
*New fighters, prediction made with limited information
Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 4m56s (9m56s total)
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Steve Erceg | Ramazan Temirov |
|---|---|---|
| Career Record | 14-5 | 20-2 |
| Height | 5' 8" | 5' 4" |
| Weight | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach | 68" | 63" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Age | 31 | 29 |
Records are official career records, all promotions included.
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Steve Erceg | Ramazan Temirov |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 21.7 | 21 |
| Strike accuracy | 46.8% | 41.2% |
| Takedowns | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Takedown accuracy | 27.3% | 50% |
| Sub attempts | 0.1 | 0 |
| Control time | 32.3s | 6.8s |
| Knockdowns | 0.04 | 1 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0.15 | 0 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 76.0% | 100.0% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 40.0% | 100.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | -1 | 5 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 25 | 5 |
| head strike share | 74.2% | 81.0% |
| body strike share | 18.2% | 17.1% |
| leg strike share | 7.6% | 1.9% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 19.73 | 16.2 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.58 | 0 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.64 | 0.21 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.35 | 1.23 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 7 | 5.000 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | Yes |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 52.6% | 60.0% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 10.5% | 60.0% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 42.1% | 0.0% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| distance strike share | 88.7% | 86.7% |
| clinch strike share | 9.7% | 8.6% |
| ground strike share | 1.6% | 4.8% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 13:46 | 7:24 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,520.8 | 1,549.1 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.123 | 0.076 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Decline | Peak |
Market Odds
| Sportsbook | Steve Erceg | Ramazan Temirov | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Decimal | US | Decimal | |
| Proline | -118 | 1.85 | -132 | 1.76 |
Odds captured Jul 25, 2026, 12:01 PM
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Steve Erceg
Ramazan Temirov
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