FightChoice Intelligence Report

Abubakar Vagaev
vs
Saygid Izagakhmaev

Abubakar Vagaev vs Saygid Izagakhmaev

https://fightchoice.app/events/abubakar-vagaev-vs-saygid-izagakhmaev-prediction-2026-07-25

Welterweight

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Jul 25, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Jul 23, 2026, 22:37 UTC

Model Breakdown
Abubakar Vagaev Saygid Izagakhmaev
Deep Learning Model α 25% weight 49.0% 51.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 27% weight 55.4% 44.6%
Statistical Model β 25% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 23% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Ensemble 42.9% 57.1%
Predicted Winner
Saygid Izagakhmaev
57.1%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 1m55s (6m55s total)
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Tale of the Tape

Stat Abubakar Vagaev Saygid Izagakhmaev
Career Record 25-4 22-4
Weight 170 lbs. 170 lbs.
Age 33 31

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Abubakar Vagaev Saygid Izagakhmaev
Per Round Average
Strikes 9 8.8
Strike accuracy 38.6% 45.3%
Takedowns 1.3 1
Takedown accuracy 40% 35.3%
Sub attempts 0 0.5
Control time 155.3s 80.7s
Knockdowns 0 0
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 85.7% 66.7%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 40.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 4 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 28 9
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 59.3% 50.9%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 25.9% 30.2%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 14.8% 18.9%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 11 8.83
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.67 0.67
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 20.8% 66.7%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 16.7% 33.3%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 4.2% 33.3%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 75.0% 33.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 66.7% 58.5%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 25.9% 34.0%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 7.4% 7.5%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 15:00 15:00
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,515.4 1,470.6
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.666 0.061
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Decline

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Abubakar Vagaev 42.9% 1.42 70.4% -39.0%
Saygid Izagakhmaev 57.1% 2.95 33.9% +68.4%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake 18% of bankroll on Saygid Izagakhmaev at 2.95 (DraftKings) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Abubakar Vagaev Saygid Izagakhmaev
US Decimal US Decimal
DraftKings -238 1.42 +195 2.95
FanDuel -250 1.40 +205 3.05
BetMGM -250 1.40 +200 3.00
Bovada -233 1.43 +195 2.95
BetOnline -233 1.43 +199 2.99

Odds captured Jul 25, 2026, 12:01 PM

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