FightChoice Intelligence Report
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Sam Patterson
https://fightchoice.app/events/santiago-ponzinibbio-vs-sam-patterson-prediction-2026-07-25
Welterweight
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Jul 25, 2026
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Jul 23, 2026, 22:37 UTC
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Santiago Ponzinibbio | Sam Patterson |
|---|---|---|
| UFC Record | 12-9 | 5-2 |
| Height | 6' 0" | 6' 3" |
| Weight | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach | 73" | 78" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Age | 39 | 30 |
Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Santiago Ponzinibbio | Sam Patterson |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 21.1 | 13.5 |
| Strike accuracy | 40.8% | 42.1% |
| Takedowns | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Takedown accuracy | 26.5% | 50% |
| Sub attempts | 0 | 0.2 |
| Control time | 13.4s | 27.5s |
| Knockdowns | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0.17 | 0 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 57.1% | 87.5% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 20.0% | 80.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | -2 | 1 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 21 | 24 |
| head strike share | 70.6% | 82.2% |
| body strike share | 12.5% | 11.1% |
| leg strike share | 16.9% | 6.7% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 21.62 | 9.9 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.21 | 0.1 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.87 | 0.07 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.67 | 0.16 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 4 | 0 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | Yes |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 58.3% | 85.7% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 58.3% | 38.1% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 0.0% | 47.6% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 55.6% | 66.7% |
| distance strike share | 95.1% | 92.6% |
| clinch strike share | 1.8% | 1.5% |
| ground strike share | 3.1% | 5.9% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 11:11 | 5:04 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,536.7 | 1,548.9 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.236 | 0.166 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Decline | Peak |
Betting Edge
| Fighter | Win confidence | DraftKings odds | Break-even | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 26.0% | 4.60 | 21.7% | +19.8% |
| Sam Patterson | 74.0% | 1.21 | 82.6% | -10.5% |
Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.
Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.
Market Odds
| Sportsbook | Santiago Ponzinibbio | Sam Patterson | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Decimal | US | Decimal | |
| Proline | +335 | 4.35 | -714 | 1.14 |
| DraftKings | +360 | 4.60 | -476 | 1.21 |
| FanDuel | +390 | 4.90 | -500 | 1.20 |
| BetMGM | +360 | 4.60 | -500 | 1.20 |
| Bovada | +375 | 4.75 | -500 | 1.20 |
| BetOnline | +375 | 4.75 | -500 | 1.20 |
Odds captured Jul 25, 2026, 12:01 PM
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Sam Patterson
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