FightChoice Intelligence Report
Matt Schnell vs Alessandro Costa
https://fightchoice.app/events/matt-schnell-vs-alessandro-costa-prediction-2026-06-06
Catch Weight
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · Jun 6, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
Model Breakdown
Matt Schnell
Alessandro Costa
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight
47.2%
52.8%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight
52.5%
47.5%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight
6.8%
93.2%
Statistical Model β 21% weight
29.9%
70.1%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight
39.2%
60.8%
Ensemble
20.0%
80.0%
Predicted Winner
Alessandro Costa
80.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 3m56s (8m56s total)
Fighter Intel
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Matt Schnell | Alessandro Costa |
|---|---|---|
| UFC Record | 7-9-1 | 5-3 |
| Height | 5' 8" | 5' 4" |
| Weight | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach | 70" | 67" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Age | 36 | 30 |
Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Matt Schnell | Alessandro Costa | UFC AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | |||
| Strikes | 16.6 | 15.4 | 13.2 |
| Strike accuracy | 40.3% | 49.3% | 43.9% |
| Takedowns | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Takedown accuracy | 45.5% | 26.7% | 33.0% |
| Sub attempts | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Control time | 16.5s | 21.9s | 48.9s |
| Knockdowns | 0.03 | 0.22 | 0.08 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0.23 | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | |||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 43.8% | 77.3% | 45.8% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 20.0% | 80.0% | 37.6% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | -2 | 3 | -2 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 16 | 22 | — |
| head strike share | 73.9% | 61.4% | — |
| body strike share | 10.0% | 18.8% | — |
| leg strike share | 16.0% | 19.9% | — |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 16.36 | 14.89 | 15.2 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.43 | 0.22 | 0.4 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.33 | 0.12 | 0.52 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.19 | 0.28 | 0.56 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0 | 0.000 | 0.42 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | Yes | — |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No | — |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No | — |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 42.9% | 82.4% | 46.5% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 0.0% | 41.2% | 27.9% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 42.9% | 41.2% | 18.7% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% |
| distance strike share | 82.2% | 75.5% | — |
| clinch strike share | 7.8% | 7.9% | — |
| ground strike share | 10.0% | 16.6% | — |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 6:59 | 8:48 | — |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,474.5 | 1,532.1 | 1500 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.081 | 0.125 | 0.069 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Decline | Peak | — |
Market Intel
Betting Edge
Recommended stake
2%
of bankroll
on Alessandro Costa at 1.22 (research)
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Matt Schnell
Alessandro Costa
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